基于指标间相关性权重法的多维煤电转型路径决策

Multi-dimensional Coal Power Transformation Path Decision Based on Criteria Importance Though Intercrieria Correlation

煤电转型中需要兼顾低碳发展要求和电力系统安全保供的问题,然而我国各地区煤电发展定位、机组特性等各不相同,因此在转型决策上具有路径多样化的特点,例如:灵活性改造、综合能源服务、技术减碳、备用辅助服务机组和关停退出等。鉴于此,从多维度视角开展针对煤电转型路径决策的研究。首先,从资源替代、环境影响、监管合规维度构建煤电转型的综合评价指标体系;其次,以综合评价方法和指标间相关性权重(criteria importance though intercrieria correlation,CRITIC)法为工具,对我国4702台现役煤电机组进行转型综合评价;再次,结合《中国“十四五”电力发展规划研究》对煤电装机结构在2035年的9.11亿kW容量目标要求,筛选出需要转型的煤电机组。结果表明,1067台机组,共2.5亿kW容量,是需要在2035年前完成转型的煤电机组。从地区分布来看,东南沿海地区的煤电机组综合表现较好,而中北部、华北部等地区的煤电机组则面临较大的转型压力。

The transformation of coal power needs to balance the requirements between low-carbon development and the ensuring safety supply of the power system.However,the positioning of coal power development and unit characteristics vary across different regions in China,leading to a plethora of distinct pathways in the transformation decision-making process,such as flexibility retrofits,integrated energy services,technology carbon reduction,standby auxiliary service units,and the eventual shutdown of facilities.In view of this,the decisionmaking of the coal power transformation path was researched from a multi-dimensional perspective.Firstly,a comprehensive evaluation index system for coal power transformation was constructed in terms of resource substitution,environmental impact and regulatory compliance dimensions.Secondly,taking the comprehensive evaluation method and the criteria importance though intercrieria correlation(abbr.CRITIC)method as tools,a comprehensive evaluation of the transformation of 4702 active coal-fired power units in China was performed.Thirdly,the coal-fired power units that need to be transformed were screened out based on the requirement for the installed coal power capacity target—911 million kilowatts by 2035 set in“China's 14th Five-Year Plan for Electricity Development”.The results show that 1,067 units,with a total capacity of 250 million kW are coal-fired power units that need to be transformed before 2035.In terms of regional distribution,coal-fired power units in the southeastern coastal region perform better overall,while coal-fired power units in regions such as northern central and northern China face greater pressure to transform.