中国民众政府观的演进及其文化因素的解释(1990—2018)

The Evolution of Chinese Peoples Views on Government and a Cultural Factor Explanation(1990—2018)

长期以来,公众的政府观论争常常关注“大政府”与“小政府”之优劣对比,即聚焦于政府规模这一维度。改革开放后,我国一方面着力于简政放权,另一方面政府又主导和引领改革进程,两种取向并存的现状促使笔者关注中国民众政府观的演进和发展。立足于改革开放以来中国民众政府观变迁的时代背景,本研究利用“世界价值观调查—中国卷”(1990—2018)的数据逐步检视民众政府观的年龄-时期-世代效应,检验了文化因素对政府观的影响。实证结果表明,中国民众政府观存在年龄-时期-世代效应,改革开放40年后现代性价值观对中国社会影响有限,“无声革命”在中国没有发生,历史悠久且具有独特性的中华传统文化持续影响着民众政府观。

The view of government reflects the expectations that people have of their government and serves as a psychological foundation for evaluating government performance,political trust,and legitimacy.For a significant period,public discourse surrounding the government in China has often revolved around the debate between“big government versus small government,”focusing on the size of government.Following Chinas reform and opening,efforts were made to streamline administration and delegate power while simultaneously leading the reform process.This occurred against a backdrop of rapid modernization and globalization that led to value diversification within Chinese society as well as to a resurgence of profound cultural traditions.Drawing on data obtained from the World Values Survey-China(1990—2018),this study examines changes in Chinese perceptions of government since the reform and opening.An APC model is utilized to explore age-period-generation effects on views toward the government in 1990,1995,2001,2007,2013,and 2018.Subsequently,an OSL model is employed to investigate how the traditional Confucian culture and the modern post-materialistic culture influence peoples views of their government.The empirical results demonstrate the existence of an age-period-generation effect on peoples views of government,indicating that such views do not change linearly with age.Specifically,individuals aged 18~24 and 25~29 exhibit a significant preference for small government,while those over age 65 significantly prefer large government.During the period from 1990 to 2018,Chinese peoples attitudes toward big government followed a Ushaped trajectory,with a turning point in 2001.Prior to that year,there was a gradual shift from a preference for big government to a preference for small government.However,after 2001,there was a reversal in direction,favoring big government,which reached a peak in 2018.Prior to the establishment of new China,previous generations had tended to prefer small government.In the early years of new China(those born between 1945 and 1949),there was an increase in preference for big government despite the persistence of an overall inclination toward small government.The“chaotic”generation,those born between 1955 and 1959,exhibited the highest preference for big government;although it was decreasing and remained significant among those born between 1960 and 1964.Conversely,the transition generation(those born between 1995 and 2000)showed a significant preference for smaller government.Despite forty years since the beginning of reform and opening,the influence of modernity on Chinese society remains limited and there is no evidence of a“silent revolution.”Instead,traditional Chinese culture with its long history and unique characteristics continues to shape peoples views of government.