中国对东盟国家体育用品贸易出口效率与潜力探究

Exploring the Export Efficiency and Potential of China's Sporting Goods Trade with ASEAN Countries

本研究基于2010—2022年中国对东盟国家体育用品贸易出口面板数据,通过随机前沿引力模型,实证研究贸易出口效率、潜力及影响因素。研究结论:1)自然因素中,中国与东盟国家的人均GDP对体育用品的贸易出口产生显著的促进作用,中国的人口数量产生阻碍作用显著,东盟国家的人口数量促进作用不显著,中国与东盟的地理距离作用不显著;2)人力因素中,东盟国家加入亚太经合组织、物流基础设施水平、立法水平的积极作用显著,东盟国家普遍偏低的政府效率对双边贸易产生阻碍作用;3)从贸易效率来看,中国对东盟国家的出口效率较低,其中扩张型市场:老挝,发展型市场:文莱,冰山型市场:马来西亚、菲律宾、泰国、印度尼西亚、新加坡、越南、缅甸、柬埔寨;4)从贸易潜力与可拓展空间来看,中国对东盟国家体育用品贸易出口贸易潜力及可拓展空间极大。

Based on the panel data of China's sporting goods export to ASEAN countries from 2010 to 2022,this study empirically studies the efficiency,potential and influencing factors of trade export through the stochastic frontier gravity model.Research conclusions:1)Among the natural factors,the per capita GDP of China and ASEAN countries has a significant promoting effect on the export of sporting goods.The population of China has a significant hindering effect.The population of ASEAN countries has no significant promoting effect,and the geographical distance between China and ASEAN has no significant effect.2)Among the human factors,the positive effects of ASEAN countries'accession to APEC,the level of logistics infrastructure and the level of legislation are significant,and the generally low government efficiency of ASEAN countries hinders bilateral trade.3)From the perspective of trade efficiency,China's export efficiency to ASEAN countries is relatively low.Among them,the expansion market:Laos,the development market:Brunei,the iceberg market:Malaysia,the Philippines,Thailand,Indonesia,Singapore,Vietnam,Myanmar,Cambodia.4)From the perspective of trade potential and expandable space,China's sporting goods export trade to ASEAN countries has great potential and expandable space.