疏勒河流域气候变化的时空分布特征分析

Temporal and spatial distribution of climate change in Shule River Basin

气候变化对区域水资源分配与调整、实施可持续发展战略有着重要影响。利用疏勒河流域及其周边6个站点的气温和降水数据资料,运用距平值、线性回归、相关性分析、小波分析和Mann-Kendall检验的方法对疏勒河流域进行气候变化的时空分布特征分析。结果表明:(1)疏勒河流域1976—2022年的气温年际变化率为0.0404℃/a,47a间气温上升了约1.86℃,气温升温显著,呈现“高—低—高”变化趋势;疏勒河流域47a均温变化是由东向西逐渐升高,自北向南气温逐渐升高。疏勒河流域47a年均温以13a为第一主周期,在13a的时间尺度中变化周期为9a;疏勒河流域在M-K检验中年均温存在1个交汇点,其突变点位于1996年,整体呈现上升趋势。(2)疏勒河流域除马鬃山外其他地区的降水增加幅度在0~2 mm·a^(-1)之间。47a的降水总量年际变化率为0.94 mm·a^(-1),47a间降水增加了约36.8 mm,降水年际变化呈现“高—低—高”波状浮动。降水的年际变化呈现自东向西降水总量递减,由北向南递减;年降水量以28a为第一主周期,在28a的时间尺度下变化周期为19a。疏勒河流域年降水量在进行M-K检验中存在9个交汇点,最主要的突变点位于1981年、2009年,降水量呈现增加—减少—增加的突变趋势。(3)疏勒河流域的降水和气温之间呈现相关系数为-0.07,显著性为0.658,降水变化对气温变化影响较小。年降水量与径流量呈正相关,相关系数为0.263,显著性为0.075,属于弱相关性,降水变化对径流变化产生正向影响,影响程度偏小。

Climate change plays an important role in the allocation and adjustment of regional water resources and the implementation of sustainable development strategies.Based on the temperature and precipitation data of 6 stations in Shule River Basin and its surrounding area,this article analyzes the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of climate change in Shule River Basin by means of anomaly,linear regression,correlation analysis,wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall test.The results show that:(1)the interannual variation rate of temperature in Shule River Basin from 1976 to 2022 is 0.0404℃/a,and the temperature has increased by about 1.86℃in 47 years,showing a significant trend of“high-low-high”temperature rise.The average temperature change in the Shule River Basin in 47 years was gradually increased from east to west and from north to south.The 47-year average annual temperature in Shule River Basin takes 13 years as the first main period,and the change period is 9 years in the 13 years scale.In the M-K test,the annual temperature of Shule River basin was at one interchange point,and its mutation year was 1996,showing an overall upward trend.(2)Precipitation in other areas of Shule River Basin except Mamanshan increased between 0 and 2 mm·a^(-1).The interannual variation rate of total precipitation in 47 years was 0.94 mm·a^(-1),the precipitation increased by about 36.8 mm in 47 years,and the interannual variation of precipitation showed a“high-low-high”wave fluctuation.The interannual variation of precipitation showed that the total precipitation decreased from east to west and from north to south.The annual precipitation takes 28 years as the first main period,and the change period is 19 years under the 28 years time scale.In the M-K test,there are 9 interchanges of annual precipitation in Shule River Basin,and the main mutation points are located in 1981 and 2009,and the precipitation shows a sudden trend of increase-decrease-increase.(3)The correlation coefficient between precipitation and temperature in Shule River Basin is-0.07,and the significance is 0.658,and the precipitation change has little effect on the temperature change.Annual precipitation and runoff were positively correlated with a correlation coefficient of 0.263 and a significance of 0.075,which belonged to the weak correlation.Precipitation change had a positive impact on runoff change,while the impact degree was relatively low.