山东省大豆生产地域格局变化及影响因素分析

Aralysis of the Changes in Geographical Pattern and Influencing Factors of Soybean Production in Shangdong Province

为给山东省大豆生产的可持续发展提供科学决策依据,本研究运用数理统计和区域比较优势测算方法,分析了山东省大豆生产地域格局的变化特征及其影响因素。结果表明:山东省大豆播种面积从1949年的191.54万hm^(2)下降到2022年的21.496万hm^(2),降幅达88.78%,自2000年以来,降幅为53.09%;大豆总产量从1949年的93.4万t下降到2022年的58.10万t,降幅为37.79%,自2000年以来,降幅为44.43%;山东省大豆单产水平明显高于全国平均水平,1978—2022年,单产增幅为163.01%,高出全国76.06%。山东大豆种植区域,由主要分布在除了滨州的沿海地市及菏泽、枣庄和临沂、济宁等地市,向鲁中地区转移,主要原因是耕地面积的减少、大豆生产的人工成本较高、净利润为负值且低于同期作物。山东省在具有生产大豆的优势背景下,也存在大豆种植收益比较低、产品竞争力弱、单产水平提高难度加大等挑战,文中最后提出了山东省发展大豆产业的对策建议。

To support policy-making for sustainable development of soybean production in Shandong,the changing characteristics and influence factors of the regional pattern of soybean in Shandong province were analyzed by using mathematical statistics and regional comparative advantage calculation methods,which provided scientific decision-making basis for the sustainable development of soybean production.The study showed that the soybean sown area in Shandong decreased by 88.78%from 1.9154×10^(6)ha in 1949 to 2.1496×10^(5)ha in 2022,decreasing by 60.10%since 2000.The total soybean production decreased by 47.79%from 9.34×10^(5)t in 1949 to 5.81×10^(5)t in 2022,decreasing by 44.43%since 2000.The yield of soybean in Shandong was significantly higher than that of national average,increasing by 163.01%during 1978 to 2022,which was 76.06%higher than the national level.Soybean sown area in Shandong mainly distributed in the coastal cities except Binzhou,Heze,Zaozhuang,Linyi and Jining,transferring towards the central of Shandong.The reason for transferring was cropland decreasing,and the higher labor cost and lower net profit from soybean production than that from other crops′production.Even the advantages of soybean production in Shandong,there were still some challenges such as low income,weak product competitiveness,and increasing difficulty in improving yield.Finally,we put forward some countermeasures and suggestions for developing soybean industry in Shandong Province.