基于MaxEnt预测3种柃属植物在中国的潜在适生区

Predicting the Potential Habitat of Three Eurya Species in China Based on MaxEnt

柃属植物是亚热带森林中的常见灌木,其枝叶可供药用,具有清热、消肿的功效,同时也是重要的冬季蜜源植物.受全球气候变化加剧的影响,环境压力可能会驱使柃属植物的生态特征和地理分布格局发生变化,进而改变其栖息地分布范围.基于多个植物标本数据库,使用MaxEnt模型预测岗柃(Eurya groffii)、柃木(Eurya japonica)和细枝柃(Eurya loquaiana)在当前及未来2080-2100年3种气候情景下(SSP245,SSP370,SSP585)在中国的潜在适生区分布,并在ArcGIS中绘制当前和未来气候情景下3种柃属植物潜在适生区高分辨率地图.同时对环境因子进行重要性排序,通过敏感性分析绘制响应曲线.结果表明:降水和温度是影响3种柃属植物分布的主导环境因子.岗柃和细枝柃的分布受到最干月降水量的限制,而柃木的分布则主要受平均气温日较差的影响.在当前气候条件下,岗柃主要分布在华南地区,尤其是西南部,而柃木和细枝柃主要分布在华中和东南沿海地区.在2080-2100年未来气候情景下,3种柃属植物均一定程度上向北转移,柃木和细枝柃适生区会显著缩减,而岗柃表现出最佳的适应能力和抗逆性,适生区保留率高,可能成为3种柃属植物中最大的受益者.

Eurya species are commonly found in subtropical forests.The branches and leaves of this kind of plants can be used for medicine with the effect of clearing heat and detumescence.They are also important winter nectar plants.However,under the impact of global climate change,environmental stress may drive changes in the ecological characteristics and geographical distribution patterns of Eurya plants,thereby changing the distribution of their potential habitat.However,there is currently no research in China to systematically reveal the current and future potential distribution ranges of Eurya plants.The key driving factors affecting their potential distribution are still unclear.The MaxEnt model was used to predict the distribution of E.groffii,E.japonica and E.loquaiana under current and future climate scenarios(SSP245,SSP370,SSP585)to 2080-2100.Meanwhile,the key factors influencing their geographical distribution patterns were explored.Based on multiple databases,species record point data was collected and filtered.The Maxent model optimized by ENMeval package was used for prediction.The high-resolution maps of potential habitat areas of three Eurya species under current and future climate scenarios were generated in ArcGIS.The environmental factors were ranked according to degree of importance and response curves were drawn with sensitivity analysis.Precipitation and temperature were the dominant environmental factors shaping the distribution of the three Eurya species.E.groffii and E.loquaiana are regulated by the precipitation of the driest month,while the mean diurnal range is the key driver of E.japonica.Under the current climatic conditions,E.groffii is mainly distributed in southern China,especially in southwestern China,while E.japonica and E.loquaiana are mainly distributed in central and southeastern coastal areas.For the three climate scenarios in the future 2080-2100,all three Eurya show a trend of migrating northward.The suitable habitats for E.japonica and E.loquaiana are projected to undergo substantial contraction.E.groffii has the highest stability in the long term and may be the largest beneficiary of three Eurya species.