基于Dagum基尼系数方法的地方政府债务地区差异分析

Analysis of Regional Differences in Local Government Debt Based on Dagum’s Gini Coefficient Approach

基于Dagum基尼系数方法,将我国内地地区按地理区位划分为东、中、西三部分,揭示地方政府债务的地区差异。研究发现:在总体地区差异方面,区域间差异在考察期内持续保持最大贡献率;在区域间差异方面,债务存量差异在东部和西部之间最大,债券新增额差异呈现上升趋势,债务余额差异呈下降趋势;在区域内差异方面,债务存量差异在西部地区最大,债券新增额差异呈波动上升趋势,债务余额差异呈波动下降趋势。经济发展水平、财政收支结构、政策环境以及地区投资吸引力是导致地方政府债务存在地区差异的主要原因。加强区域协调发展、建立区域风险共济机制、制定差异化债务管理政策,能够有效缓解地方政府债务地区差异带来的风险。

Using the Dagum Gini coefficient method,China's Mainland is divided into eastern,central,and western regions to reveal regional differences in local government debt.The study finds that in terms of overall regional differences,inter-regional differences consistently contribute the most throughout the study period.Among inter-regional differences,debt stock differences are largest between the eastern and western regions.Differences in new bond issuance show an upward trend,while differences in debt balance are decreasing.In terms of intra-regional differences,the debt stock difference is greatest in the western region,with new bond issuance differences showing a fluctuating upward trend and debt balance differences showing a fluctuating downward trend.Key factors contributing to regional differences in local government debt include economic development levels,fiscal revenue and expenditure structures,policy environments,and regional investment attractiveness.Strengthening regional coordinated development,establishing regional risk-sharing mechanisms,and formulating differentiated debt management policies can effectively mitigate the risks associated with regional disparities in local government debt.