摘要
The mutton industry plays a pivotal role in the animal husbandry industry of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.To better monitor the volatility movement and risk warning of mutton price,the fluctuation characteristics of mutton prices and the future trend of prices are analyzed systematically.On the one hand,the Hodrick Prescott(HP)filter method is used to analyze the long-term trends and cyclical characteristics of mutton prices in Xinjiang and explored the spatial evolution characteristics of mutton price fluctuations in various regions of Xinjiang.On the other hand,the Threshold Auto-Regressive(TAR)model is used to analyze the linkage relationship between mutton prices and the prices of other livestock products.The empirical results show that 1)the overall volatility of mutton price in Xinjiang is high,showing a trend of rising first,then falling and then rising from the temporal perspective.2)At the regional level,the price in the south is higher than that of the north,showing a decreasing trend from south to north on the whole from the spatial viewpoint.3)From the linkage relationship perspective,mutton and beef are complementary in the short term,but they are substitutes each other in the long term.This paper explores the characteristics of mutton price fluctuations in Xinjiang from the single time series of mutton prices and the linkage with other livestock products,which provides a reliable basis for the monitoring and risk warning of mutton price fluctuation.
