中国现代化产业体系构建及时空演进

The Construction of China’s Modern Industrial System and Its Temporal and Spatial Evolution

本文在深入分析中国现代化产业体系发展内涵的基础上,基于2005—2020年中国31个省份面板数据,从实体经济、现代产业融合发展、数字化发展、产业体系发展保障四个方面构建中国现代化产业体系指标评价体系,采用熵值法和Dagum基尼系数法测度现代化产业体系发展水平与时空差距,使用核密度估计方法和空间马尔可夫链方法考察现代化产业体系发展水平的时空演进并对未来发展趋势做出预测。研究结果表明:中国现代化产业体系发展水平存在空间差异性,呈现“东部沿海—北部沿海—南部沿海—长江中游—东北—黄河中游—大西南—大西北”逐渐递减的非均衡分布格局。地区间差距是总体差距的主要来源,沿海地区均存在两极分化特征,全国现代化产业体系发展水平呈现俱乐部趋同效应,低高水平类型省份分别存在“低水平陷阱”与“高水平垄断”现象,发展水平呈现“马太效应”,较高水平类型省份正向辐射带动效应随时间的推移更加显著,空间两极分化趋势有所降低。因此,应充分发挥现代化基础设施体系支撑作用,因地制宜制定产业发展政策,增强现代化产业体系韧性。

On the basis of in-depth analysis of the connotation of the development of China's modern industrial system,based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2005 to 2020,this paper constructs an index evaluation system of China's modern industrial system from four aspects:real economy,modern industrial integration development,digital development and industrial system development guarantee.The entropy method and Dagum Gini coefficient method are used to measure the development level and space-time gap of modern industrial system.The kernel density estimation method and spatial Markov chain method are used to investigate the space-time evolution of the development level of modern industrial system and predict the future development trend.The results show that there are spatial differences in the development level of China's modern industrial system,showing a non-equilibrium distribution pattern of gradual decline in the eastern coast,northern coast,southern coast,middle reaches of the Yangtze River,northeastern China,middle reaches of the Yellow River,southwestern China and northwestern China.The gap between regions is the main source of the overall gap.There are polarization characteristics in coastal areas.The development level of the national modern industrial system shows a club convergence effect.There are low-level traps and high-level monopoly phenomena in low-level and high-level provinces.The development level shows Matthew effect.The positive radiation driving effect of higher-level provinces is more significant over time,and the trend of spatial polarization is reduced.Therefore,we should give full play to the supporting role of modern infrastructure system,formulate industrial development policies according to local conditions,and enhance the resilience of modern industrial system.