摘要
水资源对于地区的经济社会发展起着重要的作用,而我国各地区水资源分布又非常不均匀,这就导致了很多缺水地区供需矛盾变得日益显著。以陕西省榆林市为研究对象,以2020年为基准年,采用定额法对榆林市2030年需水量及可供水量进行预测,运用GWAS模型针对丰平枯三种来水情景进行水资源优化配置研究。研究结果表明:丰水年、平水年、枯水年三种来水情景下2030年榆林市配置水量为16.19亿m^(3)、18.42亿m^(3)、19.51亿m^(3),其对应的缺水率分别为10.71%、14.34%、16.78%。2030年丰平枯情景下各行业缺水率呈递增趋势,缺水率变化最为显著的为农业方面,其缺水率分别为15.97%、19.86%、23.83%。优化配置过后,榆林市供水结构及供水平衡情况得到明显改善,给未来榆林市及其他地区进行水资源规划提供了参考。
Water resources play a crucial role in the socio-economic development of a region.However,the uneven distribution of water resources across China leads to increasingly prominent supply and demand contradictions in many water-scarce areas.Taking Yulin City,Shaanxi Province as the research object and using 2020 as the base year,this study predicts the water demand and available water supply for Yulin City in 2030 using the quota method.The GWAS model is then employed to conduct water resource optimization studies under three scenarios of abundant,normal,and scarce water years.The results show that the allocated water volumes for Yulin City in 2030 under abundant,normal,and scarce water years are 1.619 billion m^(3),1.842 billion m^(3),and 1.951 billion m^(3),respectively,with corresponding water shortages of 10.71%,14.34%,and 16.78%.Under the scenarios of abundant,normal,and scarce water years in 2030,the water shortage rates across all sectors show an increasing trend,with agriculture experiencing the most significant changes,having shortage rates of 15.97%,19.86%,and 23.83%,respectively.After optimization,the water supply structure and balance in Yulin City have been significantly improved,providing a reference for future water resource planning in Yulin City and other regions.
作者
张尧尧
白峰境
Zhang Yaoyao;Bai Fengjing(Warping Dam Construction Center,Yulin 719000,Shaanxi;Yulin City Water Resources Information and Hydrological Survey Center,Yulin 719000,Shaanxi)
出处
《陕西水利》
2024年第12期31-34,共4页
Shaanxi Water Resources
关键词
水资源优化配置
GWAS模型
需水预测
供需平衡
Water resource optimization allocation
GWAS model
water demand prediction
supply-demand balance