湖北宜昌土质滑坡稳定性评价及预测分析

Evaluation and prediction of stability status of soil landslides in E’zhou,Hubei Province

某滑坡位于湖北省宜昌市,属中型滑坡,潜在威胁巨大。为确保其合理防治,文章利用传递系数法开展滑坡稳定性现状评价,采用IAPSO-GRNN法预测滑坡变形趋势。结果表明:滑坡主滑面的稳定性相对最弱,在暴雨工况条件下,属不稳定状态,两侧滑面为基本稳定—稳定状态,滑坡局部在不利工况条件下存在较大的失稳风险;通过变形预测分析,得出滑坡变形仍会进一步增加,k1—k4监测点的增加速率均值依次为1.89、3.05、2.42、2.57 mm·周^(-1),具有较大的增加幅度,滑坡稳定性后续趋于不利,需尽快开展滑坡防治工作。

The landslide is located in Yichang City,Hubei Province,and is a medium-sized landslide with enormous potential threat.To ensure its reasonable prevention and control,this article uses the transfer coefficient method to evaluate the stability status of the landslide and predicts the deformation trend of the landslide using the IAPSO-GRNN method.The results show that the stability of the main sliding surface of the landslide is relatively weak.Under rainstorm condition,it is unstable.The sliding surfaces on both sides are basically-stable to stable.There is a greater risk of instability in the local landslide under adverse conditions.Through deformation prediction analysis,it is concluded that the deformation of the landslide will continue to increase.The average rate of increase at monitoring points k1 to k4 is 1.89,3.05,2.42,and 2.57 mm/week,respectively,with a significant increase.The stability of the landslide tends to be unfavorable in the future,and landslide prevention and control work needs to be carried out as soon as possible.