财政收入增长目标的稳预期机制识别——基于微观企业行为考察

Identification of Stable Expectation Mechanism for Fiscal Revenue Growth Target--Based on Micro-Enterprise Behavior Examination

增长目标管理是我国政府引领经济发展的重大战略实践。近年来《政府工作报告》发布财政收入增长目标的做法得到了学界的关注,多数研究从财政收入增长目标自上而下“层层加码”的角度讨论了其约束效应。与之不同,本文认为政府发布财政收入增长目标蕴含着引导预期、提振信心的深层次政策意图,实证结果显示,尽管财政收入增长目标会导致税收负担增加,但同时可以通过增加预算支出安排,释放政府对未来经济发展信心和落实政策承诺的“信号”,为经济社会发展注入“确定性”,能够显著地改善企业预期,并进一步激发企业经营投资活力,具体表现为上市公司年报文本语调积极向好和企业投资支出增加,在经过稳健性和内生性检验后,结论依旧成立。本研究启示是要重视财政政策的预期管理功能,构建财政资金与政策发布、政策沟通、提升财政透明度等多元手段协同的预期管理体系,进一步完善财政政策的传导路径,在有限的政策加力空间中寻找提质增效的可行之策。

Growth target management is an important strategic policy in China,which attract many scholars to analysis the effects of fiscal revenue growth target and identify the negative impact under the research perspective of incremental pressure.By contrast,this paper believes the governments do have the intention to guide expectations and confidence by releasing the fiscal revenue growth target.With systematically discusses,our conclusion which remains robust after a series of robustness check supports the fiscal revenue growth target can stabilize expectation and further promote the firms'investment behaviors.The inspiration of this study is that we have to emphasize the market expectation management in Fiscal policy and enrich the policy tools by releasing fiscal revenue growth target,policy communication and budget reform in order to enhance the policy efficiency within limited policy space.