气候变化背景下上海行道树风险评估及管理策略研究

Research on Risk Assessment and Management Strategy of Shanghai Street Trees in the Context of Climate Change

气候变化导致极端天气频发、降水模式改变等,直接或间接影响了城市行道树的健康和安全,导致城市行道树具有潜在的危险性和较高的风险不确定性,城市树木的风险管理面临着巨大挑战。提升行道树风险管理能力是推动城市文明治理的重要步骤。立足于气候变化背景,结合当前国内外对树木风险管理的实践经验和前沿研究,分析行道树风险发生的内外因素。为有效评估行道树风险,提出一种基于各指标因子与行道树风险等级相关性的风险评估模型。基于模型的理论分析和逻辑推理,综合考虑行道树生长环境、风险状况等因素,结合上海地区的实际情况,提出城市行道树全生命周期风险管理的应对策略:因地制宜地制定树种规划和加强理论研究、积极探索气候变化下多暴露因子指标的行道树风险评估方法、提升组织架构和构建完备的风险管理体系,并有效探讨行道树风险的管理机制。以期为国内行道树管理水平的提升提供理论支撑,为政府制定相关制度和体系建设提供实践参考。

Climate change has led to frequent extreme weather and changes in precipitation patterns,which directly or indirectly affect the health and safety of urban street trees,resulting in potential hazards and high-risk uncertainty of urban street trees,and the risk management of urban trees is facing significant challenges.Improving the risk management capability of street trees is a crucial step to promote the civilized governance of cities.Based on the background of climate change,combined with the current practical experience and cutting-edge research on tree risk management at home and abroad,this paper analyzes the internal and external factors of street tree risk.To effectively evaluate the risk of street trees,a risk assessment model was proposed based on the correlation between each index factor and the risk level of street trees.Based on the theoretical analysis and logical reasoning of the model,comprehensively considering the growth environment and risk status of street trees,combined with the actual situation in Shanghai,this paper puts forward the coping strategies for the whole life cycle risk management of urban street trees:formulating tree species planning and strengthening theoretical research according to local conditions,actively exploring the street tree risk assessment method with multiple exposure factor indicators under climate change,improving the organizational structure and constructing a complete risk management system,and effectively discussing the management mechanism of street tree risk.In order to provide theoretical support for improving the management level of street trees in China and provide a practical reference for the government to formulate relevant systems and systems.