宏观政策“三策合一”与潜在增速提升:宏观政策取向一致性的视角

On the Macro-Policy Trinity Theory and Potential Growth Rate from the Perspective of the Consistency of Macro Policy Orientation

到2035年中国要基本实现社会主义现代化,需要未来十多年保持较高的经济增速。近年来中国潜在增速较快下滑,亟须将潜在增速提升到更高水平。既有西方宏观政策理论注重使用短期稳定政策将总需求调控至潜在增速附近,这无法解释潜在增速的过快下滑,也难以为提升潜在增速提供可行方案。“增强宏观政策取向一致性”是健全宏观经济治理的重要举措,为提升中国潜在增速提供了新思路。宏观政策“三策合一”理论尝试为宏观政策取向一致性提供学理支持,更好地理顺宏观政策调控的底层逻辑。其核心在于,明确合理实施稳定政策、增长政策和结构政策三大类政策的逻辑顺序和实现路径,通过将三大类政策“合一”切实增强宏观政策取向一致性,有效提升中国经济潜在增速。

To achieve the long-term goal of basically realizing socialist modernization by 2035,it is necessary to maintain a relatively high economic growth rate in the coming decades.China's potential growth rate has declined rapidly in recent years.There is an urgent need to raise the potential growth rate to a higher level.The existing western macroeconomic policy theory focuses on how to utilize the short-term stabilization policies to maintain aggregate demand close to the potential growth rate.Yet this sort of theory cannot explain the rapid decline in potential economic growth,nor can it provide a feasible solution to raise the potential growth rate.To enhance the consistency of macro policy orientation is an important part of efficient macroeconomic governance.It provides a new approach to increase China's potential economic growth rate.The Macro-Policy Trinity Theory provides a theoretical foundation for the consistency of macro policy orientation to reveal the underlying logic of macroeconomic policy regulation.The essence of the Macro-Policy Trinity Theory is to integrate structural policies,growth policies,and stabilization policies to provide a logical sequence of and the path to their implementation.By unifying these three types of policies,China can enhance the consistency of macro policy orientation,effectively increase the potential economic growth,and advance the Chinese modernization.