基于公开发表文献的我国医保预算影响分析预测准确性研究

Research on the prediction accuracy for budget impact analysis of medical insurance in China based on publicly available literature

目的通过评估我国公开发表的医保预算影响分析(BIA)研究文献,探讨我国医保BIA研究预测的准确性,并分析其影响因素,以期为我国医保决策提供参考。方法通过PubMed、Web of Science、CNKI、万方和维普等数据库检索BIA研究的相关文献,使用医保预算影响分析质量评估量表对纳入研究的文献质量进行定量评估,准确性分析指标为药品销售金额预测值与其实际值的比值,使用t检验进行单因素分析、多重线性回归进行多因素分析。结果最终纳入11篇文献,文献评估得分为0.7503±0.0309。共有24项数据纳入分析,单因素分析结果显示文献评分对BIA预测准确性差异有统计学意义(P<0.05),多因素分析显示BIA预测准确性受到文献评分、年均/疗程药品成本的影响(F=7.844,P<0.05)。结论我国医保BIA相关文献质量总体较好,但在数据引用、分析内容与结果呈现等方面仍存在一定问题;研究预测结果的准确性存在欠缺,预测值普遍高于实际值。建议提高对医保BIA研究质量的重视程度,加强医保BIA准确性的相关研究。

Objective By evaluating the publicly published literature on the budget impact analysis(BIA)of medical insurance in China,to investigate the accuracy of BIA prediction,analyze its influencing factors,and provide reference for medical insurance decision-making in China.Methods PubMed,Web of Science,CNKI,Wanfang and VIP Database were used to collect related literature about BIA research.The quality of included literature was quantitatively evaluated by Quality Assessment Scale for Budget Impact Analysis of the Medical Insurance.The accuracy analysis indicator was the ratio of predicted values to actual values of drug sales revenue.The t-test was used for univariate analysis,and the multiple linear regression analysis was used for multivariate analysis.Results A total of 11 articles were ultimately included in the study,with a scale evaluation score of 0.7503±0.0309.There were a total of 24 sample values included in the analysis.The results of univariate analysis showed that the literature score had a statistically significant impact on the accuracy of BIA prediction(P<0.05),and the multivariate analysis showed that the accuracy of BIA prediction was influenced by literature review scores and average annual/course drug costs(F=7.844,P<0.05).Conclusion The quality of the literature about medical insurance BIA research in China is good,but there are still problems in data citation,analysis content,and presentation of results.The accuracy of prediction is far from satisfaction,and the prediction values are generally higher than the actual values.It is recommended to increase the emphasis on the quality of medical insurance BIA research and strengthen the relevant research on the accuracy of medical insurance BIA.