河南省水资源空间匹配及承载力现状分析

Analysis of Spatial Matching and Carrying Capacity of Water Resources in Henan Province

为客观分析河南省水资源空间匹配及承载力状况,根据水资源总量、人口数量等数据,通过构建洛伦兹曲线、改进突变级数模型以及物元可拓模型,对河南省2012—2021年水资源空间匹配及承载力情况进行评价,利用障碍度模型诊断影响承载力的主要因素,同时以河南省水资源情况和规划年供需水量为基础,进行水资源多目标优化配置。结果表明:水资源-灌溉面积、水资源-人口数量空间分布属于相对匹配,而水资源-第二产业产值、水资源-绿化覆盖面积空间分布属于高度不匹配;2012—2021年河南省整体水资源承载力逐步增强,综合评价值稳步上升;河南省水资源承载力主要受人口自然增长率、万元工业增加值用水量、人口密度、地表水资源量、产水模数、年平均降水量影响;侧重不同用水部门的5种水资源配置方案中,侧重工业用水的配置方案经济效益最高。

In order to objectively analyze the situation of spatial matching and carrying capacity of water resources in Henan Province,this paper evaluated the situation of spatial matching and carrying capacity of water resources in Henan Province from 2012 to 2021 by construc⁃ting Lorentz curve,improving mutation series model and mature⁃element extension model based on the data of total water resources and popu⁃lation,and used obstacle degree model to diagnose the main factors affecting the carrying capacity.At the same time,based on the water re⁃sources situation and the planned annual supply and demand of Henan Province,the multi⁃objective optimal allocation model of water re⁃sources was constructed.The results show that the spatial distribution of water⁃irrigated area and water⁃population is in equilibrium,while the spatial equilibrium of water⁃secondary industry production value and water⁃green coverage area is poor.From 2012 to 2021,the overall water resources carrying capacity of Henan Province is gradually increased,and the evaluation comprehensive value is increased steadily.The car⁃rying capacity of water resources in Henan Province is mainly affected by natural population growth rate,industrial water consumption,popu⁃lation density,surface water resources,water production modulus and annual average precipitation.Water resources allocation can be divided into five water allocation schemes,and different schemes have different water use benefits,which can provide reference for regional water al⁃location.