“一带一路”对物流业国际化的影响与路径研究

On the Impact and Path of the Belt and the Road Initiative on the Internationalization of the Logistics Industry

随着“一带一路”倡议的深入推进,沿线国家的贸易活动日益频繁,这为物流业的发展带来了前所未有的机遇。然而,物流业的发展受到多种因素的影响,包括“一带一路”沿线国家的进口和出口总额、物流相关行业的投资、交通物流效率以及物流成本等。本文运用固定效应模型和调节效应检验,深入分析了“一带一路”沿线国家的进口总额、出口总额、物流园区进口金额与出口金额等经济指标的关系。研究发现,“一带一路”沿线国家的进口总额增长会带动物流园区进口金额和出口金额的增加。相反,沿线国家的出口总额增长则对物流园区的进口与出口金额产生抑制作用。此外,物流相关行业的总固定资产投资对物流园区的进出口金额具有显著的正向效应,而公路货物周转量和社会物流总费用的增加则不利于物流园区的进口与出口活动。在调节效应的分析中,进一步揭示了各个变量之间的复杂互动关系。

With the further progress of the Belt and Road Initiative, trade activities between the countries along the route are becoming increasingly frequent, bringing unprecedented opportunities for the development of the logistics industry. However, the development of logistics industry is influenced by various factors, including the total imports and exports of the countries along the route, investments in logistics-related industries, transportation and logistics efficiency, and logistics costs. Using the fixed-effects model and a moderation effect test, the paper analyzes the relationship between economic indicators, such as the total import and export volume of countries along the route, as well as the import and export value of logistics parks. It is found that(1) the growth in the total imports of the countries along the route facilitates the increase in the import and export value of logistics parks;(2) on the contrary, the growth in the total exports of such countries exerts an inhibitory effect on the import and export value of logistics parks;(3) the total fixed asset investment in logistics-related industries has a significant positive effect on the import and export value of logistics parks, while the increase in highway freight turnover and in total social logistics cost is not conducive to the import and export activities of logistics parks. In the analysis of the moderation effect, the complex interactive relationships between various variables are further revealed.