数字化转型下城乡居民生计韧性动态演化研究

Dynamic Evolution of Urban and Rural Residents’Livelihood Resilience under Digital Transformation

社会各领域数字化转型背景下城乡居民的生计韧性研究关系到民生高质量发展与共同富裕目标的实现。本研究选取2012-2021年我国31个省、市地区的面板数据,从缓冲资本、自适应调节和学习技能三维度构建城乡居民生计韧性演化理论模型和指标体系,运用熵权法中的二次加权对城乡居民生计韧性进行动态综合评价,选取Dagum基尼系数、Kernel密度估计法分析城乡居民生计韧性的时空差异及动态演化特征。研究发现,十年来,我国城乡居民生计韧性整体呈快速上升趋势,全国各省份城乡居民生计韧性呈现多极化发展态势;缓冲资本对城乡居民生计水平影响最为突出,其次是学习技能和自适应调节;东、中、西和东北部地区城乡居民生计韧性区域内和区域间差异不均,区域协调均衡发展格局有待进一步优化和提升。研究进一步从政府与居民两个层面提出提升城乡居民生计韧性的建议。

The study of livelihood resilience of urban and rural residents in the context of digital transformation in various fields of society is related to the realization of high-quality development of people’s livelihood and common prosperity.This study selects the panel data of 31 provinces and municipalities in China from 2012 to 2021,constructs a theoretical model and indicator system for the evolution of urban and rural residents’livelihood resilience from three dimensions of buffer capital,adaptive adjustment and learning skills,and uses the secondweighted entropy weight method to conduct a dynamic and comprehensive evaluation of urban and rural residents’livelihood resilience.Dagum Gini coefficient and Kernel density estimation method were used to analyze the spatiotemporal differences and dynamic evolution characteristics of urban and rural residents’livelihood resilience.The results show that in the past ten years,the resilience of urban and rural residents in China has shown a rapid upward trend;buffering capital has the most prominent impact on the livelihood resilience,followed by learning skills and self-adaptive adjustment;the livelihood resilience of urban and rural residents in the eastern,central,western and northeastern regions is uneven within and among regions,and the pattern of coordinated and balanced regional development needs to be further optimized and improved.The study further puts forward policy recommendations from the two levels of government and residents.