个人住房房产税和限购政策对房价的影响:基于重庆房产税试点的经验证据

Impact of Personal Housing Property Tax and Purchasing Restriction Policy on Housing Prices: Based on the Empirical Evidence of Chongqing Property Tax Pilot

随着我国房地产市场的快速发展,房价问题曾一度成为社会关注的焦点;然而在当前的房地产低迷背景下,政府正致力于稳定市场发展,促进经济的平稳运行。以2011年我国个人住房房产税试点改革为背景,本文旨在探讨个人住房房产税和限购政策对房价的具体影响,旨在为当下房地产市场的稳定发展提供对策建议。基于我国34个主要城市的统计数据,采用合成控制法与双重差分法等方法对重庆房产税试点政策与限购措施的效果进行比较分析。研究发现,个人住房房产税长期征收有助于防止房价过快上涨和减少价格波动,使重庆住宅商品房和高档住宅商品房价格相对潜在价格分别下降139.4—436.84元/平方米和180.18—2493.74元/平方米。然而,房产税对非高档住宅商品房价格上涨的抑制作用有限,而限购政策仅在实施期间对房价有明显调控作用。在当前市场调整期,通过调控市场供需关系和优化资源配置,科学优化税收政策,强化政策稳定性和连续性,积极引导市场预期,避免市场过度波动,为房地产市场营造稳定健康的发展环境。长期来看,房产税将是构建我国房地产市场长效机制的重要组成部分和实现我国房地产市场平稳发展的关键影响因素。

With the rapid development of China’s real estate market,the housing price problem once became the focus of social attention.However,in the current real estate downturn,the government is committed to stabilize the market development and promote the smooth operation of the economy.With the background of the pilot reform of personal housing property tax in China in 2011,this paper aims to explore the specific impact of personal housing property tax and purchase restriction policy on the housing price,providing countermeasures and suggestions for the stable development of the current real estate market.Based on the statistical data of 34 major cities in China,effects of the restriction policy and Chongqing property tax pilot are analyzed.Results show that the long-term collection of personal housing property tax helps to prevent the rapid rise of housing prices and reduce price fluctuation,which reduces the price of commercial housing and high-end residential housing in Chongqing by 139.4-436.84 yuan/square meter and 180.18-2493.74 yuan/square meter respectively.However,the property tax on non-high-end housing is limited,while the purchase restriction policy only has obvious regulatory effect on the housing price during the implementation period.In the current period of market adjustment,through the regulation of the relationship between supply and demand in the market and optimize the allocation of resources,government should scientifically optimize tax policies,strengthening the stability and continuity of policies,actively rebuilding market expectations,avoiding excessive market fluctuations,and creating a stable and healthy development environment for the real estate market.In the long run,the property tax will be an important part in constructing the long-term mechanism of China’s real estate market and affecting the stable development of China’s real estate market.