顾及隐蔽性认知的犯罪出行路线分析方法

Analysis of Criminal Travel Routes Considering Concealment Cognition

及时发现重点监控人员的潜在犯罪出行路线是公安预警工作的重要研究内容。现有研究多聚焦于犯罪人的出行模式和目的地选择偏好,而对犯罪出行路线的分析预警研究尚显不足,针对这一问题,提出一种顾及隐蔽性认知的犯罪出行路线时空分析方法。本文基于犯罪心理学和理性选择理论,将隐蔽性认知下的犯罪出行规律归纳为“暴露风险最低原则”和“通行成本最低原则”。首先计算犯罪人感知范围内的城市感知元素给犯罪出行带来的暴露风险,将其引入选择度模型,提出“道路的犯罪选择度”,以衡量犯罪人感知范围内的局部最优道路;其次,分别采用“已通行的路线长度”作为代价函数、感知范围内的“道路犯罪选择度”作为启发式函数,通过改进的启发式算法计算最优犯罪出行路线;最后,从犯罪防控角度,依次进行了城市道路选择度分布、重点人员犯罪出行路线分析实验,通过与现有方法所得路线、实际犯罪出行路线对比,验证了本文方法分析得到的犯罪出行路线更具合理性。研究结论为公安的预警工作提供了一定的决策支撑,需把握重点人员犯罪出行时对通行距离和暴露风险的平衡,根据城市感知元素和路网分布进行资源调配,以及时、准确地进行犯罪防控、拦截。

The timely identification of potential criminal travel routes of key surveillance individuals is a crucial research focus for public security early warning systems.Current studies often concentrate on the travel patterns and destination preferences of criminals,but there is a lack of research from the criminals’perspective,considering the built environment and road network structure to analyze their criminal travel routes.To address this gap,a spatiotemporal analysis approach is proposed,considering criminals’cognition of concealment.Based on the principles of criminal psychology and rational choice theory,this paper categorizes the travel patterns of criminals under the cognition of concealment into two principles:"the Principle of Minimal Exposure Risk"and"the Principle of Minimal Travel Cost".Firstly,the urban perceptual elements within a criminal's perceptual range,including safety and risk perception elements that bring exposure risks,are calculated and introduced into the choice degree model.The"Criminal Choice Degree of Roads"is proposed to measure the optimal local roads within a criminal's perceptual range.Next,using the"Length of the Route Already Traveled"as the cost function and the"Criminal Choice Degree of Roads"within the perceptual range as the heuristic function,an improved heuristic algorithm is employed to calculate the overall optimal criminal travel route.Finally,from the perspective of crime prevention and control,experiments are conducted to analyze the distribution of urban road choice degrees and the criminal travel routes of key personnel.By comparing the routes obtained by this method with those derived from existing methods and actual criminal travel routes,it is shown that the routes calculated by this proposed method are more reasonable.They are more likely to be chosen by criminals for concealment and have relatively short travel distances,without long-term exposure in public areas.The routes,in terms of distance,travel time,and the urban perceptual elements they pass through,are closer to the actual travel behaviors of criminals,verifying the rationality of this method.The research conclusion provides decision support for public security early warning efforts,emphasizing the importance of balancing travel distance and exposure risk when monitoring key personnel,and the need to allocate resources based on the distribution of urban perceptual elements and road networks to enable timely and accurate crime prevention and interception.