中国西向流动人口居留意愿及其影响因素

Settlement intention of westward migrants in China and its influencing factors

人口是区域发展的基础要素。在区域协调发展背景下,论文以“胡焕庸线”为参照,基于中国流动人口动态监测数据和相匹配的区域层面数据,运用非参数检验与多层Logit回归模型,分析中国西向流动人口居留意愿及其影响因素。研究发现:①大约三成的西向流动人口选择长期居留,总体上居留意愿较低。在流入地分异上,城市规模越大,其居留意愿越高。②不同强度居留意愿流存在明显地域分异。自中原地区流向西北半壁中省会城市或区域性中心城市的流动人口居留意愿较高。③居留意愿受到经济与非经济要素的共同作用。个体层面上,居留时间、家庭规模、家庭收入、雇主身份、拥有产权住房、积极的社会交往和心理融入以及参加社会医疗保险对居留意愿具有积极作用。流出地为东南半壁中的北方城市,其居留意愿更高。区域层面上,海拔高度对居留意愿存在抑制作用,地方发展活力和城市规模发挥积极作用。基于研究发现,论文提出稳定提高经济收入、构建家庭友好型政策体系、营造包容性社会文化环境以及发挥城市群引领带动作用的政策建议。

Population is the dominant factor of regional development.In the context of coordinated population and regional development,this study took the Hu Huanyong line as reference to define the westward migrants,whose outflow place is in the southeastern side of Hu Huanyong line,while inflow place is in the northwestern side of Hu Huanyong line.Based on this definition,this study analyzed the settlement intention of China's westward migrants and its influencing factors.The analysis used the data of the China Migrants Dynamic Survey in 2017 and the corresponding regional data,and the non-parametric test and multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression methods.The results are as follows:1)About 30%of the westward migrants chose stable residence,and the settlement intention is at a relatively low level while the vast majority of migrants chose temporary residence.With regard to destination cities,with the increase of urban scale,the settlement intention of migrants became higher.2)The westward migrants from central China to the northwestern provincial capital cities or regional central cities were more likely to choose stable residence.3)Settlement intention was influenced by both economic and non-economic factors.At the individual level,residence time,family size,family income,employer status,ownership of housing,active social interaction and psychological integration,and participation in social health insurance had positive effects on settlement intention.The migrants from the northern cities to the southeast of the Hu Huanyong line had a higher settlement intention.At the regional level,altitude had an inhibitory effect on settlement intention,while local development vitality and city size played a positive role.However,GDP per capita and medical and health conditions played no significant role.Based on the above research findings,this study recommend to promote the settlement intention of the westward migrants by steadily increasing income,constructing family-friendly policy system,creating inclusive social and cultural environment,and let urban agglomerations play a leading role.