基于云模型的区域电力能源系统转型阶段评估

Evaluation of Regional Power Energy Transformation Based on Cloud Model

为了弥补电力能源系统转型阶段划分指标单一,缺乏定量定性综合评估的问题,提出一种基于云模型的区域电力能源系统转型阶段评估方法。采用组合赋权法建立电力能源系统转型阶段评估指标体系。结合权重与正向云算法建立五阶段标准云模型。利用逆向云算法量化定性指标,基于定量指标实际数值建立待测区域云模型,通过与标准云模型的对比分析,判断区域电力能源系统转型阶段。以某省为例评估其转型阶段,并与模糊综合评估法对比,验证本文方法的有效性与可行性。

In order to make up for the shortcomings of single classification index and lack of quantitative and qualitative comprehensive evaluation of power energy system transformation stage,this paper proposes a cloud model based evaluation method for regional power energy.The combined weighting methods is used to eastablish an evaluation Index system of power energy system transformation stage.A five-stage standard cloud model is established by combining weight and forward cloud algorithm.The reverse cloud algorithm is used to quantify qualitative indicators,and establish a cloud model for the tested area using actual numerical values of quantitative indicators.Through comparative analysis with the standard cloud model,judge the transformation stage of regional power energy system.Taking a province as an example to evaluate its transformation stage,and is compared with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method.