基于区域卫生信息平台的深圳市盐田区带状疱疹流行特征分析及预测

Epidemiological characteristics and prediction for herpes zoster based on regional health information platform in Yantian district,Shenzhen

目的探索带状疱疹(herpes zoster,HZ)的流行特征,开展短期预测,为HZ防制提供依据。方法基于深圳市盐田区区域卫生信息平台,回顾性调查盐田区2019—2023年HZ发病情况,对基本流行特征进行描述性分析,Joinpoint回归模型分析发病率变化趋势,GM(1,1)模型对发病率进行短期预测。结果2019—2023年深圳市盐田区共诊断5888例HZ病例,发病率呈逐年上升趋势,年均发病率5.85‰。0~<50岁年龄组病例占比(52.55%)高于≥50岁(47.45%),但发病率≥50岁(17.01‰)高于0~<50岁(3.67‰),女性发病率(6.15‰)高于男性(5.73‰)。50~<80岁各年龄组发病率逐年呈上升趋势(P<0.001)。带状疱疹后神经痛(post-herpetic neuralgia,PHN)发生率15.23%。GM(1,1)模型拟合精度等级为好,预测显示,2024—2026年HZ发病率呈上升趋势。结论HZ是值得关注的公共卫生问题,病例构成以0~<50岁居多,但≥50岁发病率高且呈明显上升趋势。GM(1,1)模型可用于HZ的发病预测,对HZ的流行趋势分析具有一定的指导意义。

Objective This study aimed to explore the epidemiological characteristics of herpes zoster(HZ),perform a short-term prediction for HZ,so as to provide evidence for HZ prevention and control measures.Methods Based on the Regional Health Information Platform of Yantian district,a retrospective study was conducted to investigate the HZ incidence in Yantian district from 2019 to 2023.Epidemiological characteristics of HZ were described,the trend of incidence rate was analyzed using Joinpoint regression,and a short-term prediction of incidence rate was performed using GM(1,1)model.Results From 2019 to 2023,a total of 5888 HZ cases were diagnosed in Yantian district,Shenzhen city,with an average annual incidence rate of 5.85‰.Incidence rate of HZ showed a increasing trend from year to year.The proportion of the 0-<50 years age group(52.55%)was higher than that of the≥50 years age group(47.45%),but the incidence rate of the≥50 years(17.01‰)was higher than that of the 0-<50 years age group(3.67‰),and that of females(6.15‰)was higher than that of males(5.73‰).The incidence rate of the 50-<80 years old group showed an increasing trend by year respectively(P<0.001).The incidence rate of post-herpetic neuralgia(PHN)was 15.23%.The GM(1,1)model has a good accuracy and indicated that the incidence rate showed an increasing trend from 2024 to 2026.Conclusions HZ is a public health concern.HZ cases are predominantly in the people under 50 years of age,but the high incidence rate is higher in people≥50 years of age,with a significant upward trend.The GM(1,1)model can be used to predict the incidence of HZ,and can provide evidence for HZ trend analysis.