基于AHP-EWM的流域山洪风险综合评价研究

Comprehensive Assessment of Mountain Flood Risk in Watershed Based on AHP-EWM

为合理评估并量化小流域山洪灾害风险,结合小流域山洪特点,从危险性、脆弱性和防灾减灾3个方面构建小流域山洪风险评价指标体系。采用层次分析法(AHP)、熵权法(EWM)分别确定指标的主、客观权重,结合博弈集结模型确定指标综合权重,最后基于幂指数法得到小流域山洪风险综合评价值,从而确定综合风险等级。以湖北省随州市柳林镇8·12山洪为例开展小流域山洪风险评价,最终得出其综合评价值为0.634 9,为较高风险,与柳林镇实际情况一致。该研究结果可为小流域山洪灾害预防提供理论指导,为灾害的应急救援提供决策支持。

In order to reasonably assess and quantify the risk of mountain flood disaster in small watershed,combined with the characteristics of mountain flood in small watershed,the evaluation index system of mountain flood risk in small watershed was constructed from three aspects:hazard,vulnerability and disaster prevention and reduction.The AHP and EWM were used to determine the principal and objective weights of indicators,and the comprehensive weight of indicators was determined by combining the game aggregation model.Finally,the comprehensive assessment value of mountain flood risk in small watershed was obtained based on the power index method,so as to determine the comprehensive risk level.Taking 8·12 mountain flood in Liulin Town,Suizhou City,Hubei Province as an example,the risk assessment of mountain flood in small watershed was carried out,and the final comprehensive assessment value was 0.6349,which was a high risk,which was consistent with the actual situation of Liulin Town.The results of this paper can provide theoretical guidance for mountain flood disaster prevention in small watershed and provide decision support for disaster emergency rescue.