广东前汛期连续暴雨的天气概念模型

The weather conceptual model for continuous torrential rain in the first rainy season in Guangdong

利用1961—2019年广东省86站逐日降水资料及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,对广东前汛期连续暴雨统计特征进行分析,并从500 hPa中低纬度环流条件、850 hPa u、v风场条件和高低层散度条件3个方面进行综合分析,建立了广东前汛期连续暴雨的天气概念模型。结果表明:(1)广东前汛期连续暴雨过程4、5、6月占比分别为12.0%、38.9%和49.1%,过程主要发生在5—6月。(2)对108次历史连续暴雨过程进行检验统计,其中102次符合概念模型,回报准确率达94.4%;应用概念模型准确预报了2020年6月5—9日的连续暴雨过程,说明其具有较好的预报能力。

Based on the daily precipitation data of 86 stations in Guangdong Province and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1961 to 2019,the characteristics of continuous torrential rain in the first rainy season in Guangdong were analyzed,and the weather conceptual model was established based on three conditions:circulation in middle-low latitudes at 500 hPa,u-wind and v-wind at 850 hPa and divergence in high-low levels.Results show that:(1)the proportion of continuous torrential rain process in Guangdong in April,May and June is 12.0%,38.9%and 49.1%,respectively.The process mainly occurr in May to June.(2)There are 102 processes of continuous torrential rain matching the conceptual model through examining 108 historical processes,and the confidence rate is 94.4%.The continuous torrential rain process from June 5 to 9,2020 is accurately forecasted by using the conceptual model,which shows that it has good forecasting ability.