2012--2022年安丘市出血热流行特征及发病预测

Epidemic characteristics and incidence prediction of hemorrhagic fever in Anqiu from 2012 to 2022

目的为了解2012--2022年安丘市出血热的流行特征和发病趋势,并针对发病趋势进行相关预测,从而为更好地指导安丘市出血热防控工作提供理论支持。方法采用描述性流行病学研究方法对2012-01-01--2022-12-31安丘市出血热的三间分布特征进行描述。通过使用GM(1,1)模型、指数平滑模型、随机森林模型对安丘市出血热2023年的发病率进行预测分析。结果果2012--2022年安丘市共报告出血热发病人数346例,发病趋势每年波动较大,年均发病率为3.37/10万。发病年龄多集中于25~75岁青壮年,以男性为主。在各乡镇中,兴安街道的发病人数最多,柘山镇的发病数呈现逐年下降趋势,其余街道年发病数则呈现逐年上升或逐年波动趋势。对该地2023年发病人数预测结果表明,随机森林模型为最佳预测模型,模型的均方根误差(RMSE)最小,为0.50,对2023年安丘市出血热的发病率预测为2.33/10万,在预测过程中真实值与预测值相吻合,表明预测的2023年安丘市出血热的发病率比2022年会出现上升状况,但上升幅度不大,较往年仍处于低发病率状态。结论2012--2022年安丘市出血热的发病趋势呈现上升下降交替波动趋势,无明显规律可循,总体发病率均高于全国平均水平。随机森林模型在对时间序列进行预测时预测误差小,可用预测安丘市出血热短期发病趋势。

Objective To understand the epidemic characteristics and incidence trends of hemorrhagic fever in Anqiu city from 2012 to 2022,and to predict incidence trends,thereby providing theoretical support for better guiding the prevention and control of hemorrhagic fever in Anqiu city.Methods Descriptive epidemiological research was used to describe the three-dimensional distribution characteristics of hemorrhagic fever in Anqiu city from January 1,2012 to December 31,2o22.GM(1,1)model,exponential smoothing model and random forest model were used to predict the incidence rate of hemorrhagic fever in Anqiu for the year 2023.Results A total of 346 cases of hemorrhagic fever were reported in Anqiu city from 2012 to 2022.The incidence trend fluctuated significantly every year,with an average annual incidence rate of 337/100000.The age of onset was mostly concentrated in the 25-75-year-old young and middle-aged adults,mainly male.Among various townships,Xingan street had the highest incidence rate,while Zheshan town had a decreasing trend year by year,and the other streets had an increasing or fluctuating trend year by year.The prediction results of the number of cases in the area in 2023 showed that the random forest model was the best prediction model,and the root mean squared error(RMSE)of the model was the smallest,which was 0.50.The incidence rate of haemorrhagic fever in Anqiu city in 2023 was predicted to be 2.33/100000,and the real value was consistent with the predicted value in the prediction process.This indicated that the predicted incidence rate of haemorrhagic fever in Anqiu city in 2023 would increase compared with that in 2022,but the increase was not significant,and the incidence rate was still lower than that in previous years.Conclusions From 2012 to 2022,the incidence of haemorrhagic fever in Anqiu city showed an alternating fluctuation trend of rising and falling,with no obvious rule to follow.The overall incidence rate was higher than the national average.The random forest model has a small prediction error when predicting time series,and can be used to predict the short-term incidence trend of hemorrhagic fever in Anqiu city.