基于博弈论组合赋权-TOPSIS法的煤层底板突水危险性评价

Risk assessment of coal seam floor water inrush based on game theory combination weighting and TOPSIS method

为合理定量化评价煤层底板突水危险性,探索可行的煤层底板突水评价方法进行安全预警,减少突水事故造成人员伤亡及设备损害。以回归煤矿21201工作面为例,分析影响煤层底板突水风险因素,在此基础上选取17项煤层底板突水影响因素构建危险性评价指标体系,建立煤层底板突水危险性预测组合赋权-TOPSIS评价模型,通过博弈论将层次分析法确定的各评价指标主观权重与熵权法确定的客观权重进行优化组合得到综合权重,将综合权重与TOPSIS法结合分析突水危险性等级;运用数值模拟分析工作面开采后底板卸压及塑性破坏区发育情况,并通过工程实测验证突水危险性。结果表明:博弈论组合赋权-TOPSIS评价模型评价结果为“较安全”,数值模拟得出底板卸压效果良好,底板塑性破坏区最大深度为20.6 m,结果与现场实测底板最大破坏深度22.8 m基本吻合,研究区无突水危险性。

In order to evaluate the risk of water inrush of coal seam floor reasonably and quantitatively,the feasible evaluation method of water inrush of coal seam floor is explored for safety early warning,and the casualties and equipment damage caused by water inrush accident are reduced.Taking 21201 working face of regression coal mine as an example,this paper analyzes the risk factors affecting water inrush of coal floor.On this basis,17 influencing factors of water inrush of coal floor are selected to build a risk assessment index system,and a combined weighting-TOPSIS evaluation model for coal floor water inrush risk prediction is established.Through game theory,the subjective weight of each evaluation index determined by AHP and the objective weight determined by entropy weight method were optimized and combined to obtain the comprehensive weight,and the comprehensive weight is combined with TOPSIS method to analyze the risk level of water inrush.The development of floor pressure relief and plastic failure zone after mining is analyzed by numerical simulation,and the risk of water inrush is verified by engineering practice.The results show that the evaluation result of the game theory combination-TOPSIS evaluation model is"relatively safe",and the numerical simulation results show that the floor pressure relief effect is good.The maximum depth of the plastic failure zone of the floor is 20.6 m,which is basically consistent with the field measured maximum failure depth of 22.8 m,and there is no risk of water inrush in the study area.