摘要
INTRODUCTION One of the most important problems facing coastal communities today is the effects of a global sea-rise on coastline habitat and infrastructure.Such a rise could inundate lowlands and wetlands,erode beaches,and exacerbate coastal fl ooding.Furthermore,rising sea level can infl uence the rate of salt-water intrusion into coastal aquifers,cause expansion of the salt-water wedge in estuaries,and increase the probability of damage from storm surges along coastlines.Predicting shoreline retreat and land loss rates is critical to planning future coastal zone management strategies and assessing biological impacts due to changes in or destruction of habitat.To date,long-term coastal planning has been done piecemeal,if at all(NRC,1995).Consequently,facilities are being located and entire communities are being developed without consideration to the potential costs to relocate and/or protect them from the effects of sea-level rise,fl ooding,and/or loss of natural resources.