高速交通优势度演变及其差异化人口、经济响应——以山东省为例

Evolution of High-Speed Transport Superiority and Its Differentiated Population and Economic Responses:A Case Study of Shandong Province

运用改进的高速交通优势度、变异系数、相关性分析、地理探测器方法分析2010年、2015年和2020年山东省县域高速交通发展水平,并探讨高速交通优势度演变及其差异化人口、经济响应与影响因素。结果表明:①研究期内山东省县域高速交通网络密度形成圈层过渡并不明显的多层级“中心—外围”分布,高速交通干线影响度呈现“强点叠加”的点轴分布格局,并伴有从“双核心—单轴线”到“T形双轴线”再到“网络化点轴体系”的演变特点,偏远地区的高速交通可达性改善最显著,但区位影响下的空间分异性仍较明显;②高速交通优势区多为各地市市辖区,促成山东省环状优势区分布,各地高速交通优势度均有明显增长且县际差异趋于缩小;③人口、经济体量大的区县通常更具有高速交通优势,但高速交通优势度的提高未必带来人口、经济的同向增长,各区县呈现出差异化的人口、经济变动;④高速交通干线的邻近性和航空运输的可达性显著影响人口、经济变化,不同高速交通方式之间及与社会经济特征的交互探测结果解释力呈现非线性增强,尽管高速公路密度、机场影响度、高速铁路可达性等单因子的解释效果不显著,但与区位及社会经济特征叠加后,对人口、GDP变化的解释力大幅提升。

Using the methods such as improved high-speed transport superiority degree,Pearson correlation and Geodetector,this paper explored the differences in the development of high-speed transport among counties in Shandong Province in 2010,2015 and 2020,as well as the response and influencing factors of changes in population and economic conditions during this process.It is found as follows.①During the study period,the high-speed transport network density exhibited a multi-layered"center-periphery"structure with no clear transition between circles.The influence degree of high-speed transport mainlines displayed a"strong point superposition"pattern,evolving from a"double core-single axis"to a"T-shaped double axis"and finally to a"networked point-axis system".The improvements of high-speed transport accessibility were notable in remote areas,though spatial differentiation due to location remained significant.②High-speed transport advantageous areas were primarily concentrated in municipal districts,resulting in a circular distribution of high-value areas.Significant growth of high-speed transport superiority degree was observed in various regions during the study period,with inter-county differences tending to decrease.③Counties with larger populations and economic scales typically had higher high-speed transport superiority degree.However,increases in high-speed transport superiority degree did not necessarily correlate with simultaneous population and economic growth,as changes varied among different counties.④Proximity to high-speed trunk lines and air transportation accessibility significantly influenced population and economic changes.The combination of different high-speed transportation modes,as well as them with socio-economic characteristics demonstrated a non-linear enhancement in explanatory power.Although the individual explanatory effects of motorway density,airport′s influence,and high-speed railway accessibility were not significant,their combination with location and socio-economic characteristics well explained changes in population and GDP.