科技创新与经济韧性耦合协调度及驱动因素分析——基于长三角地区的实证

Coupling Coordination Relationship between Science and Technology Innovation and Economic Resilience and Its Driving Factors:Based on the Empirical Analysis of the Yangtze River Delta

在阐述“科技创新—经济韧性”复合系统耦合协调机理的基础上,综合运用耦合协调度模型、核密度分析法、时空地理加权回归模型,探究2010—2021年长三角地区41个城市“科技创新—经济韧性”复合系统耦合协调的时空演化特征及主要驱动因素。研究发现:2010—2021年长三角地区“科技创新—经济韧性”复合系统总体耦合协调水平持续提升,但区内差异扩大趋势显著;各城市耦合协调水平参差不齐,东高西低态势不断增强,区域内由点及面的一体化态势逐步显现;医疗救治、研发投入、人口集聚和教育水平对“科技创新—经济韧性”复合系统耦合协调的影响具有明显的时空差异且影响力依次递减。研究结果对长三角地区改善创新驱动环境、提高科技创新能力、优化产业结构、强化区域经济韧性具有理论贡献和实践价值。

Based on the coupling coordination degree model,kernel density analysis and spatio-temporal geographically weighted regression model and using the data on science and technology innovation and economic resilience of 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta from 2010 to 2021,this paper systematically explored the spatio-temporal evolutionary characteristics of the coupling coordination of the"science and technology innovation-economic resilience"composite system in the Yangtze River Delta at the municipal level and the main driving factors.It is found as follows.①From 2010 to 2021,the overall coupling coordination level of the"science and technology innovation-economic resilience"composite system in the Yangtze River Delta continued to increase,but the expansion trend of the difference among cities in the region was significant.②The coupling coordination level of cities in the Yangtze River Delta was uneven,with the increasing trend of high in the east and low in the west,and the integration trend from point to surface in the region gradually appeared.③In terms of driving factors,the influence of medical treatment,R&D investment,population concentration and education level on the coupling coordination of the"science and technology innovation-economic resilience"composite system has obvious spatial and temporal differences,and the influence is decreasing in turn.The research findings have important theoretical contribution and practical values for the Yangtze River Delta to improve the innovation-driven environment,enhance the scientific and technological innovation capacity,optimize the economic and industrial structure,and strengthen the regional economic resilience.