我国南方草牧业发展和生态协同研究

Study on the development of pasture⁃based livestock husbandry and ecological coordination in south China

随着国内对肉奶的需求日益增长,北方草原因载畜量逼近其生态承载力而难以继续扩大产能。在此背景下,积极推进南方生态草牧业的发展,对保障肉奶供应和缓解北方放牧压力至关重要。然而,南方草牧业发展潜力尚未得到充分的量化评估,其生产生态协调问题也亟待研究。因此,聚焦南方草牧业的生产与生态协同问题,选取我国南方8个省份,从市级尺度评估2000—2020年间的牧草供需状况,并探讨其对生态保育的潜在影响。研究结果表明,南方八省拥有丰富的草地资源,总干草产量高达4.49×10^(11)kg,尤其在云南、贵州与四川西部,这些区域的牧草产量占总量的73.50%。尽管南方草地总体饲草富余,约71%的市域呈现盈余状态,显示出生态草牧业的巨大发展潜力,但草牧业的发展也可能对生态系统服务产生不利影响。以云南省和四川省为例,共25个市域拥有较高的草牧业发展潜力,然而,这些地区生境质量较高,平均值达到0.52,而且在碳储量与产水量方面也表现出色,分别为837.24 g C/m^(2)与515.66 mm。这意味着在这些区域推进草牧业发展的同时,将会削弱其生态系统服务功能。因此,建议对南方草地的生态草牧业进行顶层规划,选择水土保持和生物多样性保育压力小的区域发展草牧业,在生态系统服务重要的区域采取严格保育措施,以实现南方草牧业的生产和生态协同发展。

Despite the rapid increase in demand for meat and dairy,China′s northern grasslands cannot support expanded livestock production,as the current livestock numbers have already surpassed the ecological carrying capacity.Thus,the development of grasslands in South China is vital for securing future supplies of meat and dairy and could help ease the grazing pressure on the northern rangelands.However,gaps in knowledge remain regarding the development potential of pasture⁃based livestock husbandry in South China,and the production⁃ecology coordination issues of southern grasslands are also in urgent need of research.To answer this question,this study focuses on the production⁃ecology synergy of southern pasture⁃based livestock husbandry,assessing the spatial distribution characteristics of forage demand and potential supply capacity in eight southern provinces at the municipal scale from 2000 to 2020,and analyzing the potential ecological impacts of the development of southern pasture⁃based livestock husbandry.Based on these research results,we analyze the trade⁃offs and synergies between the development of pasture⁃based livestock husbandry and ecological conservation in South China.The results show that the eight southern provinces have abundant grassland resources,with a total dry forage grass production of 4.49×1011 kg,mainly concentrated in Yunnan,Guizhou and western Sichuan,where the yields account for 73.50%of the total production.Although the production of natural forage grasses exceeds the consumption of local livestock in southern provinces,with about 71%of the cities showing the forage surplus.This result indicates a huge potential for the development of ecological pasture⁃based livestock husbandry in South China.However,developing pasture⁃based livestock husbandry could potentially introduce adverse ecological impacts in China′s southern grasslands.Taking Yunnan Province and Sichuan Province as examples,a total of 25 cities have a higher potential for the development of pasture⁃based livestock husbandry.Nevertheless,these cities have many intact habitats of superior quality with an average value reaching 0.52 and they also exhibit excellent performance in providing vital ecosystem services,such as carbon storage at 837.24 g C/m2 and water yield at 515.66 mm,respectively.This suggests that promoting pasture⁃based livestock husbandry in these areas might come at the expense of diminished ecosystem service function.Therefore,this study advocates for strategic planning for ecological pasture⁃based livestock husbandry in the southern grasslands.This study recommends prioritizing areas with lower impacts on soil and water conservation and biodiversity,while implementing stringent conservation measures in southern regions with important ecosystem services to harmonize production and ecological development.