基于全过程和适应性视角下的城市生态风险管理研究进展

Research progress on urban ecological risk management from a whole process and adaptation perspective

在全球气候变化加剧及中国城市化进程加速的背景下,城市生态风险的管理日趋受到关注。面对日趋复杂且无法完全规避的生态风险,主动的适应性管理和全过程动态监测是应对风险的关键。当前的适应性管理体系较为分散,且对城市生态风险全过程综合管理的研究较少,亟需形成统一规范的理论框架。在综述并总结国内外城市生态风险管理及适应性管理研究进展的基础上,提出了全过程的生态风险适应性管理框架。基于适应性理论的“潜力⁃连通度⁃韧性”三维模型和适应性循环的四个阶段“开发、保护、释放、重组”,开展对生态风险与城市发展阶段及相应的管理措施之间的动态响应关系的研究。框架包含三层循环,内层为生态风险适应性管理的四个步骤,包括问题形成、适应性理论三维框架分析、生态风险表征与适应性阶段识别、风险适应性管理。中层为全过程管控机制,统筹考虑灾前预警、灾中应对和灾后恢复的全过程生态风险管理。外层为适应性管理的最终目标,即建立“接纳风险、主动适应、韧性发展、动态循环”的复杂适应系统。该框架通过将生态风险管理从特定适应性能力转移到多种适应性能力的协同与权衡,设计了一个能够吸收和适应未来干扰的系统。从生态风险指标体系的构建、生态风险的定量预测、生态风险管理系统的建立及全过程的适应性决策等方面讨论了研究前沿,以推动我国全过程生态风险适应性管理的研究,有助于确定城市未来发展路径并实现可持续发展。

The increasing global challenge of climate change,combined with the rapid urbanization occurring in China,has made the management of urban ecological risks an urgent concern.Due to the inherent complexity of urban ecological risks,which cannot be completely eliminated,the adoption of active adaptive management and continuous dynamic monitoring throughout the entire process are critical for effectively addressing these ecological risks.However,current adaptive management systems are frequently disjointed,and there is a notable lack of research dedicated to the integrated management of urban ecological risks across all stages.Therefore,there is an urgent need to establish a cohesive and standardized theoretical framework.This study proposes a comprehensive framework for the adaptive management of ecological risk,drawing on a review and synthesis of existing research on urban ecological risk management and adaptive management,both domestically and internationally.The proposed framework is based on a three⁃dimensional model of“potential⁃connectedness⁃resilience”and the four phases of the adaptive cycle of“exploitation,conservation,release,reorganization”according to adaptation theory.It explores the dynamic response relationships between ecological risks and the phases of urban development,along with corresponding management strategies.The proposed framework consists of a three⁃layer cycle.The innermost layer includes the four steps of adaptive management of ecological risk:identifying the problem,analyzing the three⁃dimensional framework of adaptation theory,characterizing ecological risks and identifying adaptive phases,and implementing adaptive risk management.The middle layer represents a comprehensive process control mechanism,which consists of the pre⁃disaster warning phase,the in⁃disaster response phase,and the post⁃disaster restoration phase.The outer layer signifies the ultimate objective of adaptive management,which is to establish a complex adaptive system that is guided by the principles of“risk acceptance,proactive adaptation,resilience development,and dynamic cycles”.This framework shifts the focus of ecological risk management from a singular emphasis on specific adaptive capacities to a broader consideration of multiple adaptive capacities,synergies,and trade⁃offs.This approach aims to develop a system capable of absorbing and adapting to future disturbances.Furthermore,the study explores emerging research frontiers,which include the development of an ecological risk indicator system,the quantitative prediction of ecological risk,the establishment of an ecological risk management framework,and the implementation of adaptive decision⁃making throughout the entire process.This initiative aims to enhance the understanding of adaptive management of urban ecological risks throughout the entire process in China,thereby contributing to the formulation of future urban development pathways and the achievement of sustainable development.