中国水资源行为二氧化碳排放与经济增长二维脱钩分析

Two-dimensional decoupling analysis of water resource behavior carbon dioxide emission and economic growth in China

采用二氧化碳排放当量分析方法计算了我国除港澳台外31个省份2001—2020年12种水资源行为的二氧化碳排放量,并运用二维脱钩模型探究了其与经济发展水平间的动态关系。结果表明:研究期内,我国水资源行为二氧化碳排放量先增后减,在2010年达到峰值10.4亿t,随后逐年下降,到2020年下降至8.5亿t;我国多数省份逐步实现了水资源行为二氧化碳排放与经济增长间的协同发展,尤其是在2011年之后,大部分省份表现为高经济水平强脱钩状态,但仍有部分省份出现向高经济水平弱脱钩状态的转变,暴露出环境保护方面的问题;各省份在不同阶段的二维脱钩状态具有显著差异,应根据地区自身条件制定差异化发展的策略。

Using the carbon dioxide emission equivalent analysis(CEEA)method,the carbon dioxide emissionion of 12 water resource behaviors in 31 provinces in China,excluding Hong Kong,Macao,and Taiwan,from 2001 to 2020 were calculated,and dynamic relationship with the level of economic development was explored using a two-dimensional decoupling model.The results show that during the research period,the carbon dioxide emission from water resource behavior in China first increased and then decreased,reaching a peak of 1.04 billion t in 2010,and then decreasing year by year,reaching 850 million t in 2020.Most provinces in China have gradually achieved coordinated development between water resource behavior,carbon dioxide emission,and economic growth.Especially after 2011,most provinces have shown a high economic level-strong decoupling state,but there are still some provinces that have shifted towards a high economic level-weak decoupling state,exposing environmental protection issues.There are significant differences in the two-dimensional decoupling status among provinces at different stages,indicating the importance of formulating differentiated development strategies based on regional conditions.