考虑弃水风险的梯级水库中长期多目标优化调度研究

Study on mid-and long-term multi-objective optimal operation of cascade reservoirs considering water abandonment risk

针对现有水电站弃水风险计算结果与实际情况存在较大偏差的问题,基于水量平衡原理,通过识别弃水风险因素,提出了耦合径流和负荷双重不确定性的梯级水库弃水风险量化方法;引入临界弃水概率的概念,提出了基于预警空报率和漏报率联合最小的梯级水库临界弃水概率确定方法以及基于临界弃水概率的梯级水库供水期末库水位消落控制方法;在此基础上,构建了考虑弃水风险的梯级水库中长期多目标优化调度模型,并以乌江梯级水库群为对象开展了实例研究。结果表明:乌江梯级水库群弃水概率与弃水流量间存在显著的单调递增关系;耦合调度期和余留期的两阶段方案发电效益较常规优化调度方案增加了约0.51%,生态效益提高了约1.06倍。

Aiming at the problem of significant deviation between the calculation results of abandoned water risk in existing hydropower stations and the actual situation,based on the principle of water balance,a cascade reservoir abandoned water risk quantification method coupling runoff and load dual uncertainties was proposed by identifying abandoned water risk factors.The concept of critical abandonment probability was introduced,and a method for determining the critical abandonment probability of cascade reservoirs based on the joint minimum of warning false alarm rate and missed alarm rate,as well as a method for controlling the water level drop of cascade reservoirs at the end of the water supply period based on the critical abandonment probability,were proposed.On this basis,a mid-and long-term multi-objective optimal operation model considering the abandoned water risk in cascade reservoirs was constructed,and a case study was conducted on the Wujiang cascade reservoir group.The results show that there is a significant monotonic increasing relationship between the abandoned water probability and the abandoned water flow rate in the Wujiang cascade reservoir group.The two-stage scheme of coupling operation period and residual period has increased the power generation efficiency by about 0.51% compared to the conventional optimized scheduling scheme,and the ecological efficiency has increased by about 1.06 times.