中国耗水结构综合分析及其驱动力研究

Comprehensive analysis of water consumption structure in China and study on its driving forces

基于水足迹方法,量化了2010年和2019年中国除港澳台外31个省(自治区、直辖市)农业、工业、生活和生态部门的耗水量,以基尼系数、不平衡指数和水资源承载力为主要指标,评价了各省份耗水结构的空间均匀性、局部适配性和水资源脆弱性,并采用灰色关联法对各部门耗水特征进行了驱动力分析。结果表明:各部门耗水空间分布的均匀性差异显著,农业部门最优,2019年较2010年有所下降;生活和工业部门的水资源适配度最佳,2019年较2010年变化不大;北方地区较南方地区的水资源承载力更为脆弱,超载地区主要集中在黄淮海等地区,2019年较2010年更为严峻;作物播种面积、工业营业收入、城镇生活污水排放量和城镇环境基础建设投资分别是农业、工业、生活和生态部门耗水结构的最主要驱动因素。

Based on the water footprint method,the water consumption of agriculture,industry,domestic,and ecology sectors in 31 provinces(autonomous regions,municipalities directly under the central government)in China,excluding Hong Kong,Macao,and Taiwan,in 2010 and 2019 was quantified.The Gini coefficient,inequality index,and water resources carrying capacity were used as the main indicators to evaluate the spatial uniformity,local adaptability,and water resources vulnerability of the water consumption structure in each province.The grey correlation method was used to analyze the driving forces of water consumption characteristics in each department.The results show that there is a significant difference in the uniformity of water consumption spatial distribution among various departments,with the agricultural department being the best,with a slight decrease in 2019 compared to 2010.The water resource adaptability of the domestic and industrial sectors is the best,with little change in 2019 compared to 2010.The water resources carrying capacity in northern regions is more fragile than in southern regions,and overloaded areas are mainly concentrated in areas such as the Huang-Huai-Hai region.The situation in 2019 was more severe than in 2010.The planting area of crops,industrial revenue,urban domestic sewage discharge,and investment in urban environmental infrastructure are the main driving factors for the water consumption structure of agriculture,industry,domestic,and ecology sectors,respectively.