新质生产力下“能源绿色转型”革命及意义——兼论“能源三角”理论认识

Revolution and significance of“Green Energy Transition”in the context of new quality productive forces:A discussion on theoretical understanding of“Energy Triangle”

基于全球气候变化、碳中和目标与能源转型需求、现状及发展趋势,总结了世界能源绿色转型进程与中国新能源革命取得的成就及意义,提出了“能源三角”理论。研究表明:能源技术革命引领全球能源正历经北美黑色“页岩油气革命”和中国绿色“新能源革命”。中国风光氢储绿色新能源革命取得历史性成就,光伏风电技术水平全球领先,建成全球最大、最完整和最具竞争力的新能源创新链、产业链、价值链,建成了世界上最大的清洁电力供应体系。新质生产力代表绿色生产力,中国绿色新能源革命,加速了中国能源结构转型和全球清洁能源转型的步伐,构建了世界绿色低碳转型共赢新模式。新质生产力下的“能源三角”理论诠释了碳中和目标驱动能源绿色转型背景下,能源安全性、经济性、绿色性三要素在由化石能源到新型能源体系再到能源革命演变过程中的关联与发展。与世界能源资源禀赋比,中国能源资源特征是“煤炭较多、油气较少、风光无限”,未来中国能源发展思路要坚持科技驱动、洁煤降碳、稳油增气、强新增绿、智能互融。大力发展新能源是解决中国能源安全的必然趋势,建设碳中和“超级能源系统”是必然选择,要持续提升中国新能源发展的国际领先优势,发展能源新质生产力,支撑中国建设“能源强国”,奋力“能源独立”。

Considering the demands,situations and trends in respect to global climate change,carbon neutrality and energy transition,the achievements and significance of the global green energy transition and the new energy revolution of China are summarized,and the“Energy Triangle”theory is proposed.The research indicates that the energy technology revolution is driving a dual transformation in global energy:the black“shale oil and gas revolution”in North America and the green“new energy revolution”in China.The green energy revolution of China has achieved significant milestones in wind-solar-hydrogen-energy storage technologies,leading the world in photovoltaic and wind power.The country has developed the world’s largest,most comprehensive,and competitive new energy innovation,industrial and value chains,along with the largest clean power supply system globally.New quality productive forces represents the green productive forces.The green“new energy revolution”of China has accelerated the transformation of its energy structure and the global shift towards clean energy,promoting a new win-win model for the global green and low-carbon transition.Under the backdrop of a carbon-neutral goal-driven energy transition,the“Energy Triangle”theory within the framework of new quality productive forces explains the correlation and development of energy security,economic growth,and environmental sustainability throughout the evolution from fossil fuels to new energy systems,culminating in an energy revolution.Compared to the global energy resource endowment,the energy resources of China are characterized by abundant coal,limited oil and gas,and unlimited wind and photovoltaic energy.Moving forward,the energy strategies of China will focus on the advancement of technologies to clean coal for carbon emission reduction,increase gas output while stabilizing oil production,increase green energy while enhancing new energy,and achieve intelligent integration.Vigorously developing new energy is an essential step in maintaining the energy security of China,and establishing a carbon-neutral“super energy system”is a necessary choice.It is crucial to enhance the international competitiveness of China in new energy development,promote high-quality energy productive forces,support the country’s transition to an“energy power”,and strive for“energy independence”.