考虑长期气候变化和极端天气影响的新型电力系统充裕性评估研究

Study on the Adequacy Assessment of the New Power System Considering Long-term Climate Change and Extreme Weather Effects

近年来极端天气事件发生频次高、影响范围广,极大威胁了电力系统充裕供应。首先,该文基于最新全球气候模式数据与区域降尺度方法分别获取中排放情景SSP245和高排放情景SSP585下,2060年我国各省所在网格逐小时的风速和光辐照度,并转换为逐小时风速和光伏出力。然后,根据持续低出力天气判据提取构建极端天气场景,分析了不同极端天气的时空分布特征。最后该文结合充裕性评估方法,对我国31省实证算例展开分析,评估了多种持续低出力场景对2060年我国电力系统供需充裕性的影响。

In recent years,extreme weather events have occurred frequently and had a wide impact,posing a great threat to the abundant supply of the power system.Firstly,based on the latest global climate model data and regional downscaling methods,this article obtains the hourly wind speed and solar irradiance of each province's grid in China in 2060 under the medium CO2 emission scenario SSP245 and high CO2 emission scenario SSP585,and converts them into hourly wind speed and photovoltaic output.Then,based on the criteria for sustained low power output,extreme weather scenarios are constructed to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of different extreme weather events.Finally,this paper combines adequacy assessment methods to conduct an empirical analysis of the 31 provinces in China,evaluating the impact of various sustained low output scenarios on the adequacy of supply and demand in China’s power system in 2060.