全球贸易发展新趋势下人民币国际化的机遇、挑战与路径安排

Opportunities,Challenges and Path Arrangements for RMB Internationalization under the New Trend of Global Trade Development

全球贸易是世界各国货币国际化的催化剂。当今世界贸易多元化不断强化,发达经济体依然是全球经济重要动力源,但以“金砖国家”、东盟及部分南美中亚等国为代表的新兴经济体异军突起,为全球贸易格局调整注入新动力;以数字技术为核心的现代科技迭代发展,促成数字贸易成为全球贸易新亮点;以制造业为载体的技术贸易已成各国抢占全球贸易竞争制高点;在贸易多元化趋势下,区域经济合作更是全球贸易发展新舞台。党的二十届三中全会通过的《决定》指出,要“推动金融高水平开放,稳慎扎实推进人民币国际化,发展人民币离岸市场”。直面全球贸易发展新趋势,我国超大经济与贸易体量、强大工业制造能力以及持续壮大的贸易“朋友圈”等已成为人民币国际化重要优势,而现阶段人民币国际地位与我国经贸体量匹配度低,“工业型”人民币国际化道路遇阻,人民币跨境结算尚存障碍。推动我国金融市场高水平、高质量开放,夯实“工业型”人民币国际化之路,完善人民币跨境支付结算制度配套,已成为全球贸易发展新趋势下人民币国际化的重要路径安排。

Global trade is a catalyst for the internationalization of currencies in various countries around the world.The diversification of world trade is constantly strengthening today.The developed economies remain important driving force for the global economy,but the emerging economies represented by the BRICS,ASEAN and some South American and Central Asian countries have emerged,which is injecting new impetus into the adjustment of the global trade pattern.The iterative development of modern technology with digital technology as its core has led to digital trade becoming a new highlight in global trade.Technology trade based on manufacturing has become a high ground for countries to seize global trade competition.Under the trend of diversified trade,regional economic cooperation is a new stage for global trade development.The Decision adopted at the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of CPC pointed out the needs to promote high-standard opening up of the financial sector,steadily and prudently advance the internationalization of the RMB,and develop offshore RMB markets.Facing the new trend of global trade development,China's super large economy and trade volume,strong industrial manufacturing capacity and continuously growing trade"friend circle"have become important advantages of RMB internationalization.However,at present,the international status of the RMB is not well matched with China's economic and trade volume,and the path of industrial RMB internationalization is blocked,and there are still obstacles to RMB cross-border settlement.All these have become practical challenges for RMB internationalization.Therefore,promoting the high-level and high-quality opening of China's financial market,consolidating RMB internationalization path of industrial type,and improving the supporting system of RMB cross-border payment and settlement have become important path arrangements for RMB internationalization under the new trend of global trade development.