基于灰色关联度的桥梁索力分析及索力状态预测研究

Research on Bridge Cable Force Analysis and Cable Force State Prediction Based on Grey Correlation Degree

为解决缆索体系桥梁索体工作状态难以评价的问题,提出采用索力灰色关联度值的变化程度表征桥梁索力整体运营状态。针对桥梁索力状态随时间发生改变的特征,建立桥梁索力灰色关联度值G(1,1)预测模型,实现对桥梁未来索力状态的预测。以8座缆索体系桥梁为研究背景,通过对比分析桥梁的历年索力灰色关联度值从而实现对当前索力运营状态的评价。研究结果表明,桥梁索力灰色关联度值的变化趋势可有效表征索力整体运行状态的变化情况,基于G(1,1)模型的桥梁索力灰色关联度预测结果与真实值高度吻合,验证了预测模型的准确性,实现了对桥梁索力未来运营状态的精准预测。

In order to solve the problem of difficult evaluation of the overall operation state of cable system bridge,the variation degree of grey correlation degree of cable force was proposed to characterize the overall operation state of cable force of the whole bridge.Aiming at the cable force state of the bridge changes with time,the G(1,1)prediction model of the grey correlation degree value of the bridge cable force was established to realize the prediction of the future cable force state of the bridge.Based on the research background of eight cable system bridges,the evaluation of the current cable force operation state was realized by comparing and analyzing the grey correlation value of the cable force of the bridge over the years.The results show that,the trend of the grey correlation degree value of the cable force of the bridge can effectively characterize the change of the overall operation state of the cable force.The prediction results of grey correlation degree of bridge cable force based on G(1,1)prediction model are highly consistent with the real values,which verifies the accuracy of the prediction model and realizes the accurate prediction of the future operation state of bridge cable force.