基于时序运行模拟的贵州省新能源消纳能力分析

Analysis of Renewable Energy Consumption Capacity in Guizhou Province Based on Time-Series Operational Simulation

新能源发电受到了越来越多的关注,然而新能源出力的不确定性、电网负荷的不可控性以及电网跨区传输等因素的限制,新能源难以完全消纳。传统分析方法不利于提高新能源消纳能力。该文以贵州省为例,基于时序运行模拟法对电力系统新能源消纳能力进行分析。首先分析了贵州省新能源资源分布情况、出力特性以及在时间和空间上的分布特点,并研究了风电、光伏的波动特性;其次,在研究系统短期运行的过程中,建立了考虑新能源不确定性的电力系统时序运行模拟模型。由于存在预测误差,考虑了新能源出力的不确定性,并根据系统的运行模式量化了新能源消纳能力;最后,基于贵州省新能源出力、负荷情况等规划数据进行了算例分析,并对所提模型进行了验证。

Renewable energy generation has garnered increasing attention.However,due to factors such as the uncertainty of renewable energy output,the uncontrollability of electricity loads,and limitations in cross-regional power transmission,it is challenging to fully accommodate renewable energy.Traditional analysis methods are not conducive to enhancing renewable energy integration capacity.Taking Guizhou Province as an example,this paper analyzes the renewable energy integration capacity of the power system based on time-series operational simulation.Firstly,it analyzes the distribution of renewable energy resources,output characteristics,and temporal and spatial distribution patterns in Guizhou Province,and studies the fluctuation characteristics of wind power and photovoltaic power.Secondly,during the research on the short-term operation of the system,a time-series operational simulation model for the power system considering the uncertainty of renewable energy is established.Given the presence of prediction errors,the uncertainty of renewable energy output is considered,and the renewable energy integration capacity is quantified based on the system's operation mode.Finally,a case study is conducted based on planning data regarding renewable energy output and load conditions in Guizhou Province,and the proposed model is validated.