基于事理图谱的重大突发事件风险感知与预测研究

Research on Risk Perception and Prediction of Major Emergencies Based on Event Evolutionary Graph

[目的/意义]从科学应对重大突发事件入手,聚力情报智慧,探索重大突发事件风险感知与预测的具体方法与实施流程,全面提高感知重大突发事件演变态势及预测衍生风险的能力,以情报决策推动重大突发事件应急管理工作的全流程。[方法/过程]基于数据与知识双重驱动的研究理念,在利用事理图谱揭示重大突发事件演变机制的基础上,结合国内外相关研究明确了重大突发事件风险、重大突发事件风险因素的定义,构建了重大突发事件风险传导链路模型,提出了利用风险传导链路感知和预测重大突发事件风险的具体方法和实施流程,并结合重庆万州“7·4暴雨”事件开展实证研究。[结果/结论]实证研究表明,基于事理图谱的重大突发事件风险感知与预测的方法和流程具有较强的科学性和可操作性,当类似重大突发事件发生时,能够为相关应急管理工作的开展提供参考。

[Purpose/significance]Starting from the scientific response to major emergencies,gather intelligence wisdom,explore the theory and method of risk perception and prediction of major emergencies,comprehensively improve the ability to perceive the evolution of major emergencies and predict derivative risks,and promote the whole process of major emergencies emergency management with intelligence decision-making.[Method/process]Based on the research concept of dual data and knowledge driving,and on the basis of revealing the evolution mechanism of major emergencies by using the theory graph,this paper defines the risk of major emergencies and the risk factors of major emergencies in combination with relevant researches at home and abroad,and constructs the risk transmission link model of major emergencies.This paper puts forward the specific method and implementation process of sensing and forecasting the risk of major emergencies by using the risk transmission link,and carries out an empirical study based on the“7·4 rainstorm”event in Wanzhou,Chongqing.[Result/conclusion]The empirical study shows that the theory,method and implementation process of risk perception and prediction of major emergencies based on the event evolutionary graph proposed in this study are highly scientific and operable,and can provide intelligence support for relevant emergency management when similar major emergencies occur.