基于超网络的重大突发事件公众认知演化与预警策略研究

Research on the Evolution of Public Cognition and Early Warning Strategy of Major Emergencies Based on Hypernetwork

[目的/意义]重大突发事件可能引发广泛的社会关注和舆情波动,对社会稳定和公共安全构成威胁。深入研究公众认知的演化,可以更好地理解公众对突发事件的感知和反应,及时发现潜在的社会风险,改善危机管理和应急响应策略。[方法/过程]根据重大突发事件的参与主体与内外部因素之间的复杂交互关联关系,构建包括用户、时序、观点、情绪4层子网的超网络模型,基于对超网络的分析,提出公众认知挖掘方法。以河南暴雨期间鸿星尔克捐赠引起的舆情事件为例展开实证分析,提出相应的预警策略。[结果/结论]提出的超网络模型为用户群体动态识别以及公众认知演化提供有效支撑,基于超网络的公众认知挖掘方法为突发事件的舆情监控与应急处置等相关研究提供新的思路。

[Purpose/significance]Major emergencies may cause widespread social concern and public opinion fluctuations,posing a threat to social stability and public security.Through in-depth research on the evolution of public cognition,we can better understand the public’s perception and response to emergencies,facilitate timely detection of potential social risks,and improve crisis management and emergency response strategies.[Method/process]According to the complex interaction relationship between the relevant parties and various factors of major emergencies,a hypernetwork model including four subnets of users,time series,opinions and emotions is constructed.Based on the analysis of the hypernetwork,a public cognition mining method is pro-posed.Taking the public opinion event caused by Hongxing Erke donation during the rainstorm in Henan province as an example,an empirical analysis is carried out,and the corresponding early warning strategy is proposed.[Result/conclusion]The proposed hypernetwork model provides effective support for group dynamic recognition and public cognition evolution,and the hypernetwork-based public cognition mining method provides new ideas for public opinion monitoring and emergency response.