中国育龄人群生育意愿现状及其影响因素研究

Research on the Current Situation and Influencing Factors of Fertility Intention Among People of Childbearing Age in China

目的分析育龄人群生育意愿现状及其影响因素,为我国改善生育状况、促进人口高质量发展提供参考依据。方法利用2021年中国综合社会调查数据,以18~45岁的育龄人群作为研究对象,选取其中一般人口学特征、个人生活情况、期望子女数等资料,通过广义线性模型分析育龄人群生育意愿的影响因素。结果纳入研究对象1276例,育龄人群生育意愿平均为1.74个。育龄人群的生育意愿在性别、民族、宗教信仰、婚姻状况、户口性质、地区、教育程度、年龄、房产情况、社会养老保险等因素方面差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。广义线性模型分析结果显示,性别、地区、宗教信仰、婚姻状况、户口性质、教育程度、年龄是育龄人群生育意愿的影响因素(P<0.05)。结论我国育龄人群生育意愿较低,影响生育的原因较多,国家和卫生计生部门应有针对性地加强生育政策引导,干预生育意愿影响因素,改善育龄人群的生育意愿,促进我国人口高质量发展。

Objective To analyze the current situation and influencing factors of fertility intention among people of childbearing age,so as to provide a reference for improving fertility status and promoting high-quality population development in China.Methods Based on the data of the 2021 Chinese General Social Survey,the population of childbearing age between 18 and 45 years old was selected as the research object.The relevant data such as general demographic characteristics,personal life conditions,and expected number of children were selected,and the influencing factors of fertility intention of the childbearing age population were analyzed by a generalized linear model.Results A total of 1276 subjects were included in the study.And the average fertility intention of the childbearing age population was 1.74.There were statistically significant differences in the fertility intention of the childbearing age population in terms of gender,ethnicity,religious belief,marital status,Hukou nature,region,education level,age,real estate status,social endowment insurance,and other factors(P<0.05).The results of generalized linear model analysis showed that gender,region,religious belief,marital status,Hukou nature,education level and age were the influencing factors of fertility intention of people of childbearing age(P<0.05).Conclusion The fertility willingness of the childbearing age population in China is relatively low,which is affected by many factors.It is of great significance for the high-quality development of China's population to strengthen the guidance of fertility policy,strengthen the intervention of influencing factors of fertility intention,and improve the fertility willingness of the population of childbearing age in China.