中国冰雪旅游安全事故时空格局与组态成因

Spatial and Temporal Pattern and Configuration Causes of Safety Accidents in China’s Ice-Snow Tourism

基于2011—2020年5470起冰雪旅游安全事故案例,文章结合核密度、标准差椭圆、季节强度指数、泰尔指数等对中国冰雪旅游安全事故的时空分布和区域差异进行分析,并利用模糊集定性比较分析法深入挖掘事故的组态成因。研究发现:(1)2011—2020年中国冰雪旅游安全事故经历了平稳增长期(2011—2014年)、快速增长期(2015—2019年)和急剧锐减期(2019—2020年)3个阶段。全国七大区域季节性差异明显。(2)中国冰雪旅游安全事故集中分布于“胡焕庸线”东侧,并呈现“三核多极点”的空间结构特征,事故覆盖面积逐渐扩大、重心逐步向西南跃迁。(3)2011—2020年中国冰雪旅游安全事故的总体区域差异呈“先升后降”态势,组间差异是总体差异的主要来源。(4)中国冰雪旅游安全事故具有多重并发性与因果非对称性特征,“综合风险型”“保障短缺型”“环境复杂型”和“产业集聚型”是引致高规模冰雪旅游安全事故的组态路径,“保障支持型”和“产业滞后型”是引致低规模冰雪旅游安全事故的组态路径。

Based on 5470 cases of ice-snow tourism safely accidents in China from 2011 to 2020,this study aimed to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution and regional differences of ice-snow tourism safety accidents.Kernel density analysis,standard deviation ellipse,seasonal concentration index and Theil index were used for the analysis,and the configuration influencing factors were explored using fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis(fsQCA).The results show that:(1)From 2011 to 2020,the number of ice-snow tourism safety accidents in China experienced three distinct phases:a stable growth period(2011—2014),a rapid growth period(2015—2019),and a sharp decline period(2019—2020).There were significant seasonal differences among the seven major regions in China.(2)The concentrated distribution of ice-snow tourism safety accidents in China is predominantly on the eastern side of the“Hu Line”,exhibiting a spatial structure characterized by“three cores and multiple poles.”The coverage area of accidents gradually expanded,and the center of gravity progressively shifted towards the southwest.(3)The overall regional differences in ice-snow tourism safety accidents in China from 2011 to 2020 showed an“initial increase and subsequent decrease”trend.The inter-group differences were the main source of the overall differences.(4)The ice-snow tourism safety accidents in China were characterized by multiple concurrency and causal asymmetry.The complex path pattems lead to high accident scales are categorized as“comprehensive risk type”,“shortage guarantee type”,“complex environment type”,and“industrial agglomeration type”.The complex path patterns lead to low accident scales are categorized as“support shortage type”,and“industrial lag type”.