“双碳”背景下韶关市农业碳中和效应的测度与动态评价

Measuring and Dynamic Evaluation of Agricultural Carbon Neutrality Effects in the Context of “Dual Carbon” in Shaoguan City

为明确韶关市农业碳中和阶段特征,构建了基于5类碳源和2类碳汇的农业碳中和指标体系,测算2011—2021年韶关市农业碳排放量、碳汇量和碳中和效应。结果表明,从碳排放总量看,韶关市农业碳排水平以年均6.00%的速度稳步增长,农业碳排强度则以年均1.96%速度稳步下降。从碳排放结构看,对农业碳排放贡献率大小依次是物质投入(41.33%)、秸秆利用(21.33%)、牲畜养殖(17.86%)、水稻种植(16.82%)和土地利用(2.67%);韶关市农业碳汇水平整体呈现先下降后上升的“U”形变动趋势;2011—2021年韶关市农业碳中和程度呈现逐渐下降趋势,碳中和的年均实现程度为41.32%。农用化学品投入是最主要碳源、农业低碳化发展水平有待提升、优化土地利用结构挖掘农业碳汇、需要着重控制要素投入和秸秆收获环节的碳排放实现绿色低碳化转型。研究结果可为韶关市制定农业碳减排政策提供理论依据。

To clarify the stage characteristics of agricultural carbon neutrality in Shaoguan City,this study constructed an indicator system of agricultural carbon neutrality based on 5 types of carbon sources and 2 types of carbon sinks,and calculated the carbon emissions,carbon sinks,and carbon neutrality effects of Shaoguan City’s agriculture from^(2)011 to 2021.The results showed that the total carbon emissions from agriculture in Shaoguan City have been steadily increasing at an annual rate of 6.00%,while the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions has been steadily decreasing at an annual rate of 1.96%.In terms of carbon emission structure,the contribution rates to agricultural carbon emissions are ranked as follows:inputs(41.33%),straw utilization(21.33%),livestock farming(17.86%),rice cultivation(16.82%),and land use(2.67%).The overall level of agricultural carbon sinks in Shaoguan City presents a“U”shaped trend of decline followed by increase.From^(2)011 to 2021,the degree of agricultural carbon neutrality in Shaoguan City has gradually decreased,with an average annual achievement level of 41.32%.The study found that the use of chemical inputs is the main carbon source,the level of agricultural decarbonization needs to be improved,optimizing land use structure helps to tap agricultural carbon sinks,and it is necessary to focus on controlling carbon emissions from input elements and straw harvesting processes in order to achieve a green and low-carbon transformation.The research results can provide theoretical basis for Shaoguan City to formulate agricultural carbon reduction policies.