劳动法对生产率、就业和失业及劳动收入份额的影响——基于剑桥Leximetric数据库的新证据

The Effects of Labour Laws on Productivity,Employment,Unemployment and the Labour Share of National Income:Analysis of New Evidence from the Cambridge Leximetric Database

本研究报告了英、中两国劳动法经济效应的计量分析结果。关于劳动法的数据资料,本研究使用CLD数据库(Cambridge Leximetric Database)2023年更新的剑桥商业研究中心劳动规制指数(CBR-LRI指数),该指数对1970-2022年世界各国劳动法进行了编码。CBR-LRI指数的纵向追踪使本研究能够基于时间序列方法模拟一个经济体的动态变化趋势。本研究运用脉冲响应函数(impulse response function)评估劳动法对效率指标(生产率、就业和失业)及分配指标(劳动收入份额)的影响。本研究发现,更严格的劳动法在英国与就业增加和失业减少相关联,而在中国与生产率提高相关联。本研究还观察到,两个国家的劳动法对劳动收入份额均产生正向影响。根据劳动法规则的特定类型细化我们的研究结果可见,在英国,正向的就业效应与更强的工作时间保护相关联。评估研究结果可以认为,这些结果说明,劳动法对于防止英国倒退至低成本、低生产率的经济很重要,对中国而言则有助于其跨越“中等收入陷阱”以实现可持续发展。在更普遍的意义上,本研究表明,有必要对劳动法之于经济影响的标准模型及其衍生的政策建议进行调整,以达到通过劳动法约束资本、进而提高资本使用效率的效果。

We report the results of an econometric analysis of the effects of labour laws in the UK and China.For data on labour laws we draw on the 2023 update of the CBR-LRI in-dex,part of the Cambridge Leximetric Database,which codes for labour laws around the world between 1970 and 2022.The dataset reveals long-term trends in the evolution of labour laws in over 100 countries.Focusing specifically on the UK case,it indicates considerable volatility o-ver time.The 1980s were a period of significant deterioration in worker protection,particularly with respect to collective labour law rights concerned with freedom of association,collective bar-gaining and industrial action.A revival of protections began in the 1990s but was mostly associ-ated with individual employment protection and working time rights,with European Union law a major influence in this period.The dataset captures recent changes in the regulation of platform work,including the UK Supreme Court's decision in Uber(2021),which clarified the issue of employment status in workers'favour.Turning to China,the index highlights the role of the Labour Contracts Act of 2007 in strengthening working time and dismissal protections,and the significance for platform work of the Guiding Opinions on Protecting Workers in New Forms of Employment adopted in 2021.The longitudinal coverage of the CBR-LRI enables us to use time-series techniques which model dynamic changes in an economy over time.We employ im-pulse response function analysis to estimate the effects of labour laws on indicators of efficiency(productivity,employment and unemployment)and distribution(labour's share of national in-come).We find that stronger labour laws in the UK are associated with rising employment and falling unemployment,while those in China are associated with rising productivity.We also ob-serve positive impacts of labour laws on the labour share in both countries.Breaking down our results according to particular types of labour law,the positive employment effect we see in the UK is associated with stronger working time protections.Assessing our results,we suggest that they speak to the importance of labour laws for avoiding regression,in the British case,to a low-cost,low productivity economy,and,in China's case,for helping bridge the middle in-come gap'to sustainable development.More generally,our findings imply the need for adjust-ment to standard models of the role of labour laws in the economy and to the policy advice which they generate,to the following effect:labour laws,by disciplining capital,contribute to its more productive use.The finding that labour laws can have positive employment and productivi-ty effects might seem to contradict much of the policy advice given by international agencies.It would be timely for policy makers to consider a new consensus,in which labour laws are seen as having a core role to play in ensuring sustainable development and growth.