基于DEVA-BASS模型的互联网企业价值评估——以叮咚买菜为例

Value evaluation of Internet Enterprises based on DEVA-BASS Model--Taking Dingdong Grocery Shopping as an Example

本文针对互联网企业的潜在用户价值特征,研究互联网企业估值问题。首先,基于互联网企业的网络用户效应,通过将企业的市场竞争力引入BASS模型来刻画市场潜在活跃用户量随网络用户量变化的规律,给出对市场潜在活跃用户量预测的BASS模型改进。然后,在此基础上,通过DEVA模型拓展给出潜在活跃用户价值的DEVA模型表示,构建互联网企业价值评估的DEVA-BASS模型。最后,将DEVA-BASS模型应用于叮咚买菜的企业价值评估案例,说明互联网企业价值评估绝不能仅仅局限于对现有用户价值的评估,更需要根据对用户的市场竞争力情况评估市场潜在用户价值。

This paper aims at the potential user value characteristics of Internet enterprises,and studies the valuation of Internet enterprises.First of all,based on the network user effect of Internet enterprises,the market competitiveness of enterprises is introduced into the BASS model to describe the rule that the market potential active user volume changes with the network user volume,and the BASS model for predicting the market potential active user volume is improved.Then,on this basis,the DEVA model representation of potential active user value is given through the expansion of the DEVA model,and the DEVA-BASS model of Internet enterprise value evaluation is constructed.Finally,the DEVA-BASS model is applied to the enterprise value evaluation case of Dingdong Buying Vegetables,which shows that the Internet enterprise value evaluation must not be limited to the evaluation of the existing user value,but also needs to evaluate the market potential user value according to the market competitiveness of users.