基于学龄人口新格局的基础教育师资调配机制优化

Optimizing the Basic Education Teacher Allocation Mechanism Based on the New Pattern of School-age Population

学龄人口数量、变动趋势以及空间布局是影响基础教育师资调配的基础性因素。基于2020年第七次全国人口普查的最新数据,通过经典人口预测方法——队列要素法——模拟2020—2050年我国分城乡各阶段学龄儿童的规模和结构变动。研究结果显示,学龄前儿童呈现“降—稳—降”波动式变化,未来十年变动幅度较大,且农村变速更快。小学适龄儿童呈现“稳—降—稳”变动趋势,初中适龄儿童呈现“升—降—稳”波动变化,高中适龄人口先升后降,但在城镇和农村表现出较明显差异。基于学龄人口变动趋势和经研究设定的师资配置标准,初中及以下学段教师需要加强不同时期和不同程度的存量调配,普通高中需持续加大增量配置。为此,建议优化整体+局部多向适应的配置机制,完善分级+分类双向轮动的岗位设置机制,创建转岗+跟岗相结合的跨学段流转机制,深化县域+城乡双协调的空间交流机制。

The size of school-age population,the trend of its change,and its spatial distribution are the basic factors affecting the allocation of teachers in basic education.This study,based on the latest data from the 7th National Population Census in 2020 and the cohort-component method(a classical population-forecasting method),simulates the changes in the quantity and the structure of school-age children in urban and rural areas of China between 2020 and 2050.The research results reveal the following:The quantity of preschool children,showing a wave-shaped trend of"decline—steadiness—decline,"will change rapidly in the next decade,especially in rural areas;the quantity of school-age children at primary schools shows a trend of"steadiness—decline—steadiness";the quantity of school-age children at junior high schools shows a wave-shaped trend of"increase—decrease—steadiness";and the quantity of school-age children at senior high schools shows a trend of"increase—decrease,"but there is an apparent difference between urban and rural areas;based on the trend for the change of school-age population and the research-based standard for teacher allocation,the quantity of teachers at and below junior high schools needs to be deployed to varying degrees in different periods,and the quantity of teachers at senior high schools needs to be continuously increased.Therefore,the authors propose optimizing the mechanism for the overall and local allocation of teachers,improving the mechanism for teachers'graded and classified positions,creating a mechanism for teachers'transfer and shadowing-based classroom observation across different educational stages,and deepening the mechanism for teachers'rotation and exchanges between county-level schools and between urban and rural areas.