贸易成本、制度质量与中国农产品贸易——基于RCEP伙伴国的实证分析

Trade Costs,Institutional Quality,and China's Agricultural Trade--An Empirical Analysis Based on RCEP Partners

贸易成本是阻碍农产品贸易的重要因素,研究制度质量是否以及如何影响贸易成本的贸易抑制作用,对于合理选择贸易对象、优化制定贸易条款等方面均具有重要意义。基于2005—2023年中国与《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(RCEP)伙伴国的农产品贸易数据,运用双向固定效应(TWFE)模型和全面可行广义最小二乘(FGLS)方法,定量分析贸易成本、制度质量对中国农产品贸易的影响。研究发现,贸易成本显著抑制中国与RCEP伙伴国的农产品贸易,且贸易成本对中国农产品进口的负面影响尤为显著,对中国农产品出口的抑制作用相对较小。制度质量对中国农产品贸易起到显著的促进作用,且制度质量对中国从RCEP伙伴国进口农产品的促进作用相较于中国向RCEP伙伴国出口农产品的促进作用更为明显。制度质量在贸易成本对中国农产品贸易的影响中发挥调节效应,RCEP伙伴国制度环境的改善能够减弱贸易成本对中国农产品贸易额、农产品进口额以及农产品出口额的抑制作用。贸易成本和制度质量对中国农产品贸易的影响具有异质性:无论是贸易成本还是制度质量,对中国进口RCEP伙伴国(发达国家)农产品的影响微乎其微;但从RCEP伙伴国(发展中国家)进口农产品时,贸易成本的进口抑制效应和制度质量的进口促进效应则尤为显著;与之相反,当中国向RCEP伙伴国(发展中国家)出口农产品时,贸易成本和制度质量的影响则相对较小;而当中国向RCEP伙伴国(发达国家)出口农产品时,贸易成本的出口抑制效应较弱,但制度质量的出口促进效应较强。为此,中国既需要推进RCEP减税安排、降低非关税贸易成本,同时还需要推动适应异质性制度质量的贸易合作、克服因制度差异导致的贸易阻碍。

Trade costs are significant barriers to agricultural trade,and studying whether and how institutional quality affects the trade-suppressing impact of these costs is crucial for making informed trade partner selections and optimizing trade terms.Using agricultural trade data from 2005 to 2023 between China and the member countries of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP),the authors employ a two-way fixed effects(TWFE)model and a full feasible generalized least squares(FGLS)method to quantitatively analyze the effects of trade costs and institutional quality on China's agricultural trade.It is found that trade costs significantly hinder China's agricultural trade with RCEP countries,with a notably stronger negative impact on imports than on exports.Institutional quality has a significant positive effect on China's agricultural trade,especially enhancing China's agricultural imports from RCEP partners more than its exports.Institutional quality also moderates the influence of trade costs on agricultural trade,where improvements in RCEP countries'institutional environments help reduce the inhibitive impact of trade costs on China's total agricultural trade volume,import value,and export value.The effects of trade costs and institutional quality on China's agricultural trade exhibit heterogeneity:for imports from RCEP partners in developed countries,the effects of both trade costs and institutional quality are minimal;however,when importing from RCEP developing countries,trade costs significantly restrict imports,while institutional quality strongly promotes them;in contrast,when exporting agricultural products to RCEP developing countries,the effects of trade costs and institutional quality are relatively minor;and when exporting to RCEP developed countries,the trade-suppressing effect of trade costs weakens,but the positive impact of institutional quality strengthens.Therefore,China needs to advance RCEP tariff reduction arrangements and lower non tariff trade costs,as well as foster trade cooperation that accounts for varying institutional qualities and addresses trade barriers caused by institutional differences.