计及多重不确定性和时间相关性的虚拟电厂参与碳绿证协同交易优化调度

Optimal Scheduling of Virtual Power Plant Participating in Carbon-green Certificates Collaborative Trading Considering Multiple Uncertainties and Time Correlations

为解决碳和绿证交易机制不完善以及源-荷-市场不确定性和时间相关性对虚拟电厂运行的影响,提出一个计及多重不确定性和时间相关性的虚拟电厂参与碳-绿证协同交易优化调度模型。首先,建立基于市场价格的碳-绿证协同交易模型,并在上述市场环境下以虚拟电厂综合成本最小为目标构建协同交易优化调度模型,其次,考虑源-荷-市场的不确定性,基于时序生成对抗网络动态学习不确定性因素的时间相关性,引入时间协方差条件消除生成模糊集合中的不匹配分布,与分布鲁棒优化模型相结合对虚拟电厂进行优化调度。最后,引入算例分析验证所提协同交易机制在虚拟电厂经济和环保方面的优势以及构建优化模型在刻画不确定性和时间相关性的可行性和有效性。

To address the issue of imperfect carbon and green certificate trading mechanisms and the impact of source-load-market uncertainty and spatial and temporal correlation on the operation of virtual power plant(VPP),an optimal scheduling model for VPP participating in carbon-green certificate collaborative trading is proposed to consider multiple uncertainties and time-dependence.Firstly,a carbon-green certificate collaborative trading model based on market price is proposed,and an optimal scheduling model to minimize the integrated cost of VPP collaborative trading is constructed in the above market environment.Secondly,considering the uncertainty of the source-load-market,the time-correlation of uncertainties is dynamically learned based on the time generative adversarial network,and the temporal covariance conditions are introduced to get rid of the mismatch distribution of the generative fuzzy set,which is combined with the distributionally robust optimization model to optimize the scheduling of the VPP.Finally,the arithmetic example analysis verifies the advantages of the collaborative trading mechanism proposed in this paper regarding the economy and environmental protection of VPP,as well as the feasibility and validity of the TimeGAN-DRO model proposed in portraying uncertainty and time correlation.